Receipts: The Fed Is Done. This Week the Lenders Set the Price. (Week Ahead, September 21, 2026)
The paperwork behind the week-ahead video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded Sunday night, September 20. Every number below has the day it was true and where it came from. Where a number came from a news outlet or a data vendor and not a government page, it says so.
The lines I put on the record for this week
Chart
The line
Where it came from
Ten-year yield (TNX)
A close above 5.02
Highs of 5.01 to 5.02 on Sept 15, 16 and 18 with no close above. Treasury’s official Sept 18 row: 5.01.
Bank fund (XLF)
55.44
The low on Fed day, Sept 16. Friday’s low was 55.46.
S&P 500
7,508 and 7,757
The Sept 16 low (7,507.77) and the Sept 3 high.
Oil, November contract (WTI)
94.64 and 101.69
The Sept 17 low and the Sept 15 high on the November contract. Sunday night it traded under 94.64 (low 93.62) in thin trade. The line is a daily close under it that holds the next day.
Dollar-yen
158.05, then 160
Friday’s high; the September high is 160.38.
Gold futures
4,273
The Sept 16 low.
Bitcoin
82,283, then 82,814; other side 74,887
The Sept 3 high, the May 6 high, and the Sept 15 low (Coinbase).
Chart levels for currencies, futures and Bitcoin are data-vendor prints (Yahoo Finance, Coinbase), not official tapes. Anything can happen at any one of them. That’s the game.
The borrowing
What I said
The record
Source
A hundred and eighty-three billion dollars in three days, one o’clock each day
2-year $69 billion Tuesday, 5-year $70 billion Wednesday, 7-year $44 billion Thursday, each at 1:00 PM Eastern. A $28 billion floating-rate note on Wednesday is not in that total.
Indirect bidders took about two-thirds of the two-year and about sixty percent of the five and the seven
66.01%, 61.51% and 60.78% at the last auction of each. Treasury defines an indirect bidder as a customer bidding through a dealer. That group includes foreign central banks and big domestic funds.
TreasuryDirect auction results
It all has to be paid for next Wednesday, the last day of the quarter
All three settle September 30.
TreasuryDirect announcements
Fund managers own the least bonds since May 2022; their number one fear is bond rates rising out of control; chip stocks are the most crowded trade; they owned the most bank stocks since last November
Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, taken Sept 4 to 10: bonds net 48% underweight; biggest tail risk a disorderly rise in bond yields (33%); most crowded trade long semiconductors (53%); banks most overweight since November 2025.
The October oil contract stops trading Tuesday; your chart already switched to November
WTI futures stop trading three business days before the 25th of the month before the contract month. For October that is Tuesday, Sept 22.
CME Group contract specifications
About half of a drop in oil reaches the gas pump inside two weeks, most of it inside a month
“About half of a crude oil price change passes through to retail gasoline prices within two weeks,” and about 80% within four. That measurement is for gasoline.
Thirteen names in its government filing: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America’s trading arm. Coins at Coinbase, cash at BNY
The iShares Bitcoin Trust annual report lists thirteen authorized participants, including Goldman Sachs & Co., J.P. Morgan Securities, Citigroup Global Markets and BofA Securities. Coinbase Custody holds the bitcoin. BNY is the cash custodian and administrator.
China’s president lands Wednesday and the meeting is Thursday. That’s as reported
As reported by AP and Bloomberg. No White House schedule was posted when I recorded. So is the reported $14 billion Taiwan arms package.
News reports, Sept 20
Congress did not pass an insider trading law. The House passed a bill in July. The Senate has never voted on it
H.R. 7008, the Stop Insider Trading Act, passed the House July 22, 2026, 232 to 198. Placed on the Senate calendar August 6. No Senate vote. Members would keep what they already own.
The biggest purchases on file are on Nancy Pelosi’s form, made by her husband: Bloom Energy stock, between one and five million dollars, July 24; Intel stock, between half a million and a million, the same day
Periodic Transaction Report filed August 21, 2026. Owner code SP (spouse). Bloom Energy stock purchase July 24, $1,000,001 to $5,000,000. Intel stock purchase July 24, $500,001 to $1,000,000. The same filing lists call options on both. Filing a trade is legal and required.
The most-sold stock in the pile was Microsoft, at least four members. One member reported buying Treasury bills
From every readable House transaction report filed Aug 21 to Sept 17, 2026. Five scanned filings could not be read, so the counts are floors. Every trade in the pile is dated Sept 8 or earlier.
Earlier videos said the pump follows oil “about two weeks later.” The government’s own measurement is about half within two weeks and about 80% within four. This video uses the measured version.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. I’ve been trading since 2001 and teaching the institutional framework, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, since 2012. The videos are the weekly version of what I read every morning. The morning version, dated the same way, is the Daily Market Research. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
Receipts: Fed Week, Day One — Where Everybody Was Standing (September 14, 2026) This is the paperwork behind the Monday video on TikTok, the one that opened Fed week.
Receipts: Fed Week, Day Two — The Move Happens Before the Announcement (September 15, 2026) The paperwork behind Tuesday’s video on TikTok, recorded around 4 AM ET on September
Receipts: Fed Day Morning — The Auction, the Coffee Cup, and the Board at 2:30 (September 16, 2026) The paperwork behind two videos on TikTok: the Fed Day Morning
