Receipts: Fed Week, Day One — Where Everybody Was Standing (September 14, 2026)
This is the paperwork behind the Monday video on TikTok, the one that opened Fed week. Every number I said on camera is below, with the date it was true and the document it came from. If I was wrong, this is where you catch me.
What I said on camera
- The futures market priced a hike on Wednesday at about 85 percent while a Reuters poll of economists said hold. When the money and the degrees disagree, price moves to whichever one turns out right.
- A hike by itself leans one way: dollar up, gold down, stocks down. Oil doesn’t care; oil is fighting a different war.
- The small accounts were 79 percent long gold, the fullest room in three years, and the total number of open positions was shrinking. A full room with one door.
- The small accounts were 66 percent long the S&P while the big funds were net short. The Nasdaq funds had covered a record short in August and were trimming again.
- The quiet money was long dollars: dollar-index open interest the second highest in three years, and the euro shorts added 17,000 contracts in a week.
- Oil had no shock absorbers left: Hormuz restricted, the Saudi East-West pipeline hit by a drone, the strategic reserve the lowest since 1982.
- Every Fed day in 2026 the S&P closed red. Friday was the largest options expiration on record and the S&P rebalance.
- When the president pushes and the Fed bends, the dollar falls and gold rises. When the Fed doesn’t bend, the chain runs backwards.
The headcount: CFTC Commitments of Traders, data as of Tuesday, September 8
Released Friday, September 11 at 3:30 PM ET. Legacy report, futures only. “Small accounts” is the non-reportable group. Ranks are against the last 160 weekly reports.
| Market | Small accounts long / short | Small accounts % long | Rank of 160 | Big funds net | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (COMEX) | 52,554 / 14,240 | 78.7% | 149 (top 7%) | +231,960 | 411,227, down from 427,957 |
| E-mini S&P 500 | 263,462 / 137,409 | 65.7% | 145 (top 10%) | −76,036 (net short) | 2,071,836 |
| Dow Jones | 17,586 / 11,327 | 60.8% | 151 (top 6%) | +17,345 | 93,839 |
| Nasdaq-100 | 50,761 / 35,713 | 58.7% | 125 | +20,704, down 6,373 on the week | 313,941 |
| US Dollar Index | 3,246 / 1,662 | 66.1% | 143 | +17,604 | 57,858, rank 159 of 160 |
| Euro FX | 92,781 / 56,895 | 62.0% | 76 | −42,616, shorts added 17,691 on the week | 942,464, highest in 26 weeks |
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, pulled from the CFTC’s public data feed on September 13, 2026.
The rest of the numbers, dated
| What I said | The number | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate going in | 3.50–3.75% | September 13 | Federal Reserve |
| Odds of a hike Wednesday | 85.6% (futures) vs. 70% of 93 economists saying hold (Reuters poll) | September 13 | CME FedWatch; Reuters |
| Core CPI | 2.4%, lowest since 2021 | August data | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| PCE inflation (the Fed’s thermometer) | 3.7% | Latest available | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Diesel, national average | $6.00 and rising (record $6.23 on Monday, September 14) | September 13–14 | AAA |
| WTI crude | About $100; $101.39 Monday settle | September 14 | CME settlements |
| Gold, December futures | $4,349 going in; $4,351.90 Monday settle; 22% below the January 28 record | September 13–14 | CME settlements |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.98% Friday; touched 5.014% Monday | September 11–14 | U.S. Treasury |
| Fed days in 2026, S&P closed red | Five for five before this week (January, March, April, June, July). The video said “four for four”; see the correction below. | September 13 | Exchange closes |
| July 29 Fed day | Dow −1,153 on a hold; 30-year yield 5.21%, highest since 2007 | July 29 | Exchange closes |
| Friday’s options expiration | $9.6 trillion of options exposure expiring by September 18, largest on record by raw notional | September 10 | Citadel Securities estimate, as reported |
| Trump, Ireland | The war ends “right after the midterms” and oil “comes tumbling down when that happens” | September 12 | Press pool |
| Trump, Truth Social | “LOWER THE RATE,” “BE PATRIOTS” | September 4 | Truth Social |
| Warsh, Jackson Hole | “predominant focus right now should be on prices”; forward guidance “has overstayed its welcome”; “a quieter Fed” | August 2026 | Federal Reserve speech |
One correction I owe you. On camera I said every Fed day this year closed red, four for four. There were five meetings before September, and all five closed red. The streak was right; the count was short by one.
The precedent I read out
- April 21, 2025, “Mr. Too Late”: dollar index to a three-year low, gold to a record, Dow down 2.48% the same day.
- August 25, 2025, the Lisa Cook firing: dollar down, gold up, long bonds sold.
- July 29, 2026, the hold the president wanted: 30-year yield 5.21%, highest since 2007; gold up 5.1% on the week; Dow −1,153.
- June 17, 2026, the hawkish debut, the Fed defied: gold −7.5% on the week.
How to check these yourself
The headcount is free every Friday at 3:30 PM ET at the CFTC. The Fed’s calendar, statements, and projections are at the Federal Reserve. Daily Treasury yields are at the U.S. Treasury. Oil stockpiles are at the EIA. None of it needs a guy.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. I’ve been trading since 2001 and teaching the institutional framework, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, since 2012. The videos are the weekly version of what I read every morning. The morning version, dated the same way, is the Daily Market Research. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
