Receipts: Rejected on a Saturday. Friday Graded, the Weekend, the First Headcount Since the Hike, and the Week Ahead. (Sunday, September 27, 2026)
The paperwork behind Sunday’s week-ahead video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded early Sunday, September 27, before the futures reopened at 6 PM Eastern. Every number below has the day it was true and where it came from. Where a number came from a news outlet or a data vendor and not a government page, it says so. Four clarifications are owned at the bottom.
Thursday night’s lines, and what Friday did with them
| Chart | What Thursday’s video said | Friday, September 25 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil, November contract (CL) | Friday closes back under 94.64, the whole thing was a sweep, and the play is short toward 91; out on a close back over the ceiling | The sweep branch fired. Settled $92.41, down $2.20 (2.3%); open and high 94.75, low 91.51. Down about 8% on the week (Friday, September 18: 100.30). Brent settled $104.32, down 2.1%. Reuters’ drivers: “mounting hopes for a truce between the US and Iran and talk about a possible US ban on diesel exports.” | Settlements and the week as reported by Reuters via Yahoo Finance and CNBC; range from Yahoo Finance CL=F daily bars and the CNBC quote page |
| Dollar-yen | Above 158.05 you stay with it, out on a close under; at 160 you take it off | The out fired. 157.19 at 5 PM Eastern (Reuters: 157.13 at 3:12 PM). Low 156.93 in the 9 AM hour; high 158.46 at midnight. Never near 160 (the week’s high was 159.04 on Thursday). Cause as reported: Japan’s finance minister said the president raised the weak yen at the summit; a Friday call between her and the U.S. Treasury Secretary reaffirmed that “yen undervaluation is a matter of concern.” No intervention was reported. | Yahoo Finance JPY=X hourly bars; the call and the level as reported by Reuters via Investing.com; the summit remark as reported by investinglive |
| S&P 500 | Inside the box, 7,508 to 7,757; in the box you do nothing | Inside. Closed 7,743.41, up 0.51%. High of the day 7,752.07, under the ceiling by 4.93 points. Low 7,693.08. Week: up 1.21%. Dow up 0.93% to 51,828.62; Nasdaq Composite up 0.48% to 27,068.72. | Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily bars; closes as reported by CNBC |
| Bitcoin | 82,814 is the line; a daily close under and you’re out; a wick under it that closes back over is the buy | Held. Friday’s daily close (UTC) 84,035 on Yahoo, 84,093 on Coinbase. Saturday’s close 84,417 (Coinbase). Weekend range through 1 AM Sunday: 83,778 to 84,560 (Coinbase and Yahoo agree; CoinGecko 83,889 to 84,479). Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows: +$134.5 million Friday, the seventh straight positive day; the week +$2,385.8 million (Monday +999.0, Tuesday +714.7, Wednesday +346.9, Thursday +190.7, Friday +134.5), the largest week of 2026. | Coinbase Exchange candles; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD; CoinGecko; Farside Investors ETF flow table; the “largest week of 2026” as reported by 24/7 Wall St. |
| Bank fund (XLF) | Under 55.44; no buys under the line; the trade is a close back over it with the ten-year down | Held under. Closed 54.84, up 0.57%; high 54.89. Third week under 55.44. On the week: XLF down 1.83%, HYG (junk bonds) down 0.85%, TLT (long government bonds) down 2.38%. KBW Bank Index up 1.11% Friday, down 1.80% on the week. | Yahoo Finance XLF, HYG, TLT, ^BKX daily bars |
| The ten-year | The first day it closes lower with no headline is the customer next door; wrong if the high gets taken out | A shrug, not a break. Treasury’s official ten-year par yield for September 25: 5.17 (Thursday 5.18). The two-year 4.81 (from 4.87). The thirty-year 5.49 (from 5.47), a new high for the run; CNBC described Thursday’s 30-year as “levels not seen since 2004.” Ten minus two: 0.36, from 0.31. On the CBOE index the ten-year printed 5.230 in the 10:45 AM bar and closed 5.184; the official par close is the number the video grades. | Treasury: daily par yield curve; index prints from Yahoo Finance ^TNX; the 2004 line as reported by CNBC |
| Dollar index | 101 | Closed 100.97, back under 101 after two days above. Week: up 0.75%. | Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB; Trading Economics |
| Gold futures (December) | 4,273 | Held: low 4,289.20, last 4,321.20 (CNBC 4,320.50). Week: down 2.34%. Spoken once, as “above its line at forty-three twenty-one.” | Yahoo Finance GC=F; CNBC quote page |
Chart levels for currencies, futures and Bitcoin are data-vendor prints (Yahoo Finance, Coinbase, CoinGecko), not official tapes. Oil’s 92.41 is the settlement as reported by Reuters and CNBC.
The weekend, as reported
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Friday at the U N, their foreign minister put a plan on the table. Seven days, and on day six the water opens. The price: the blockade comes off, their frozen money comes back, oil sanctions get waived, ceasefire on every front | Iran’s foreign minister, to reporters at the UN Security Council on Friday: “If the necessary conditions are met, the strait can be reopened and normal maritime passage restored within seven days.” Timeline as reported: days one to five initial steps, day six the strait reopens, day seven nuclear talks begin. Conditions as reported: end the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, release frozen assets, waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales, a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon, and U.S. acceptance of a transit route agreed by Iran and Oman. | As reported by Al Jazeera, NBC News and AP via Fortune |
| Late Friday a senator said the White House told the refiners there’ll be no ban on shipping diesel out of the country | Senator Ted Cruz told refining-industry leaders late Friday that the White House had offered assurances it would not ban U.S. diesel exports; the assurances came “from the White House, not specifically from the president,” and no decision had been made. | As reported by Bloomberg |
| Saturday, on the lawn. I rejected their deal. Then he posted a map of the strait with his own name on the water | The president, on the White House lawn Saturday before departing: “I rejected their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they’re losing so badly.” Also: “I’d like to make a deal, too. But that deal would not be acceptable.” Early Saturday he posted an image of the Strait of Hormuz labeled “Trump Strait” on Truth Social. | As reported by NBC News, NPR and AP via KSAT |
| A White House official the same day: positive and constructive talks through the go-betweens, and, their words, not in any hurry | An unnamed White House official, per NBC: the U.S. is having “positive and constructive discussions through mediators” but is “not in any hurry to reach an agreement”; “The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz.” | As reported by NBC News |
| Saturday night their side said they’re waiting for the official answer. Sunday morning, their foreign minister, only diplomacy ends this. And their military, if the Americans touch the strait, they get slapped | Saturday night, Iran’s foreign minister told the state news agency Tehran had seen the president’s initial reaction but had yet to receive a response through mediators and would decide once it did. Early Sunday: “Only diplomacy can end the conflict.” Iran’s armed forces spokesman, early Sunday: “if they interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, they will be slapped.” | As reported by Middle East Eye, RFE/RL and Iran International |
| Thirty-three million barrels of crude came out of the strait last week, as tracked by the ship-trackers, and Wednesday was the biggest day since July. Under escort, with the blockade on | Kpler preliminary ship-tracking: crude flows out of Hormuz reached 33.7 million barrels in the week starting September 20 through Friday, “roughly on track with the previous week’s levels,” on 19 tankers including 17 supertankers. A U.S. official told Reuters that Wednesday, September 24 saw the highest daily crude volume through the strait since early July, with about 60 commercial vessels transiting. A separate open-source tracker (straits.live, citing IMF PortWatch) shows far lower counts; its method differs from Kpler’s, which counts escorted and AIS-dark tankers. | Kpler figures as reported by Reuters via Business Recorder; the Wednesday peak as reported by Baird Maritime; the contrasting tracker at straits.live |
The headcount: the first count since the hike
The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report was released Friday, September 25 at 3:30 PM Eastern with positions as of Tuesday, September 22, the first count taken after the Fed’s September 16 rate increase. “Small accounts” below is the report’s non-reportable line; “big speculative money” is the legacy report’s non-commercial line; “pensions and insurers” is the asset-manager line of the financial-futures (TFF) report. Ranks are against the last 160 weekly reports (about three years), computed from the CFTC’s own rows.
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| The small accounts are as short the ten-year as they’ve been in three years. Bottom two percent of the last hundred and sixty weeks | Ten-year note futures, non-reportable positions: 382,098 long, 396,381 short, 49.1% long, the third-lowest reading of the 160 weeks (rank 3 of 160). In the TFF report the non-reportable net is minus 14,283 contracts, the most short in the window. | CFTC legacy futures-only data (Socrata); CFTC TFF data (Socrata) |
| The pensions and insurers, the biggest long-only money there is, cut a hundred thousand contracts off a three-year record | Ten-year note futures, asset managers (TFF): net long 2,531,384 contracts as of September 22, down 103,596 from 2,634,980 on September 15, which was the highest of the 160-week window. Still the 94th percentile of the window. | CFTC TFF data (link above) |
| In August the big speculative money was the most short the Nasdaq it had been in three years. Last Tuesday it was the most long in three years. Six weeks | Nasdaq-100 consolidated futures, non-commercial net (long minus short), legacy report: minus 42,905 on August 11 (the lowest of the 160 weeks); plus 52,346 on September 22 (the highest of the 160 weeks). Both ends measured on the same series. | CFTC legacy futures-only data (link above) |
| Not spoken, for the record | Euro FX non-commercial net minus 52,334 (rank 17 of 160, the top ten percent most short); Japanese yen non-commercial net long 71,982, down 48,377 on the week; U.S. dollar index non-reportable 69.0% long (rank 151 of 160); gold non-reportable 77.3% long (rank 142 of 160); E-mini S&P 500 open interest down 555,866 on the week, the September contract’s expiry; Bitcoin futures non-commercial net plus 2,756 (rank 150 of 160). Crude (NYMEX WTI) managed-money net long 101,828, the 50th percentile, not crowded. | CFTC legacy and disaggregated data (Socrata: 72hh-3qpy) |
The rest of what was said
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Friday’s numbers were sleepy. Durable goods came in flat, and the consumer survey had regular people expecting prices up 4.6 percent next year, same as two weeks ago | Census, August durable goods (released Friday 8:30 AM): new orders “decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $338.6 billion,” after a 0.9% July increase; ex-transportation up 0.3%. University of Michigan, September final (Friday 10 AM): sentiment 48.1 (preliminary 47.8; August 51.7), the lowest in four months; one-year inflation expectations 4.6%, unchanged from the preliminary and up from 4.0% in August; long-run 3.4%. | Census Bureau advance report on durable goods; University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| The traders at the Chicago exchange who bet on Fed meetings trimmed the October hike from north of seventy percent to about sixty-four | CME FedWatch probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the October 27 to 28 meeting, as reported: 73% Wednesday after a Fed governor’s remarks; about 69% early Friday; about 66% mid-afternoon Friday (Reuters); “a roughly 64% likelihood” at Friday’s close (CNBC, 4:18 PM). | As reported by CNBC (Wednesday), Reuters via Investing.com and the CNBC live blog (Friday 4:18 PM) |
| The two-year, the one that does what the Fed says, fell six hundredths to four eighty-one. The thirty-year, the one that does what the lenders say, went up to five forty-nine | Treasury’s official par yields, Thursday to Friday: two-year 4.87 to 4.81; ten-year 5.18 to 5.17; thirty-year 5.47 to 5.49. The full Friday row as published: 1-month 4.04, 2-year 4.81, 10-year 5.17, 30-year 5.49. | Treasury daily par yield curve (link above) |
| The same big banks are the ones allowed to create the shares of that fund, so when you buy it in your brokerage account, a bank is buying the coin behind it | The iShares Bitcoin Trust prospectus lists its authorized participants for cash creations, including J.P. Morgan Securities, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Global Markets, BofA Securities and UBS Securities, alongside market makers. An authorized participant delivers cash (or bitcoin) to the fund and receives new shares; redemptions run in reverse. | iShares Bitcoin Trust prospectus |
| Wednesday: the Fed’s own inflation report, PCE, expected up four tenths, spending up eight tenths; the same morning all 183 billion from last week’s three sales gets paid for; the quarter ends | BEA releases August personal income and outlays (the PCE price index) and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, September 30 at 8:30 AM Eastern; consensus as reported: PCE +0.4% month over month, spending +0.8%. The two-year ($69 billion), five-year ($70 billion) and seven-year ($44 billion) notes all issue September 30. September 30 is the end of the third quarter. | BEA release schedule; TreasuryDirect auction data (issue dates); consensus as reported by Trading Economics |
| As reported by one of the biggest trading firms, the pensions are overfull on stocks after this quarter, so they sell stocks and buy bonds by rule, not by opinion, right into the close | Citadel Securities’ September note: the top 100 U.S. pensions are about 112% funded, the “highest since 2001,” which “continues to incentivize plans to de-glide and immunize portfolios, creating the potential for mechanical equity selling and fixed income buying into quarter-end.” No dollar estimate for September was published at the time of the video; none was spoken. | As reported by Citadel Securities, September Setup |
| Tuesday two o’clock, the New York Fed boss, the one who said Thursday another hike is reasonable, gives a full speech with a press room. Thursday one-thirty, the Fed’s vice chair. Four-thirty, the Fed’s Thursday sheet | New York Fed President John Williams: “economic outlook and monetary policy,” University at Buffalo, Tuesday, September 29 at 2:00 PM Eastern, with text, moderated Q&A and a press availability. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson: “U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy,” University of Virginia, Thursday, October 1 at 1:30 PM. The H.4.1 release is Thursday at 4:30 PM. Thursday’s video quoted Williams’ Thursday remark that another hike by year-end is “reasonable.” | New York Fed media advisory; Federal Reserve Board calendar, October; CNBC (Williams, September 24) |
| Tuesday ten o’clock, job openings and the consumer confidence number. Thursday ten o’clock, the factory survey, and the prices part of it was seventy-one last time. Friday eight-thirty, jobs. The guess is a hundred thousand after a hundred and sixty-two, with the rate expected to tick up to four point two | BLS JOLTS (August): Tuesday, September 29, 10:00 AM. Conference Board consumer confidence: Tuesday 10:00 AM. ISM Manufacturing PMI (September): Thursday, October 1, 10:00 AM; the August report’s prices index was 71.1. BLS Employment Situation (September): Friday, October 2, 8:30 AM; August was +162,000 with unemployment at 4.1%; consensus as reported +100,000 and 4.2%. | BLS JOLTS schedule; BLS Employment Situation schedule; ISM August report (release date and prices index) |
| Wednesday night the chip memory company reports. Then China closes for a week. Sunday the seven oil countries get on a call and set November’s output | Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, September 30. Chinese exchanges are closed October 1 through October 7 for the National Day holiday and reopen October 8. The seven OPEC+ countries that meet monthly (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) meet Sunday, October 4; on September 6 they held October output at September’s level. | Micron release; Shanghai Futures Exchange holiday circular; OPEC, September 6 release |
| Three-thirty Friday, the headcount again | CFTC Commitments of Traders, Friday, October 2, 3:30 PM Eastern, positions as of Tuesday, September 29. | CFTC release schedule |
Not said on camera, for the record
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Friday, as reported by Reuters: “The biggest risk that I see with inflation right now is that an inflationary mindset could start to set in.” AAA national averages Saturday, September 26: regular $4.487, diesel $6.484 (the diesel record was $6.53 on September 22). Primary dealers’ net Treasury position was $454.6 billion in the week of September 16, against a record $557.1 billion on March 25, with bill holdings at $103.1 billion, roughly double four weeks earlier. The Fed’s H.4.1 for September 24 showed bank reserves down $83.6 billion on the week and the Treasury’s account up $100 billion. Sources: Reuters via Yahoo Finance; AAA; New York Fed primary dealer statistics; Federal Reserve H.4.1, September 24.
Four clarifications
1. “Thirty-three million barrels” is Kpler’s preliminary 33.7 million for the week through Friday, as reported by Reuters. It is a ship-tracking estimate, not an official count, and another open-source tracker shows a much lower number using a different method; both are linked above.
2. The Nasdaq “record short in August, record long last Tuesday” uses the legacy report’s non-commercial line at both ends. The financial-futures (TFF) report splits that line: as of September 22 its leveraged-fund category was net short the Nasdaq-100 while its asset-manager category was net long. The video’s comparison is like for like; it is not a statement about hedge funds alone.
3. “About sixty-four percent” for an October hike is CNBC’s 4:18 PM Friday figure from CME FedWatch. Earlier Friday readings ran 66% to 69%, and a third-party tracker showed 62% for the October 28 decision; the range is above.
4. Thursday’s Bitcoin low differs by venue: 82,709 on Coinbase (under 82,814) and 82,907 on Yahoo (above it). The video’s Thursday chart shows the Coinbase wick. Friday and the weekend never came within 900 dollars of the line on any feed.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. I’ve been trading since 2001 and teaching the institutional framework, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, since 2012. The videos are the weekly version of what I read every morning. The morning version, dated the same way, is the Daily Market Research. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
