Receipts: The Rent Went Up. The Ten-Year Closed at 5.11, the Highest Since 2007. (Wednesday, September 23, 2026)
The paperwork behind Wednesday night’s video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded after the close on Wednesday, September 23. Every number below has the day it was true and where it came from. Where a number came from a news outlet or a data vendor and not a government page, it says so. Two clarifications are owned at the bottom.
Tuesday night’s lines, and which branch fired at Wednesday’s close
Chart
What Tuesday’s video said
Wednesday
Source
The ten-year
If the five-year sale tails again, that’s two in a row, and the ten-year has a reason to go look at five again; the line is still a close over 5.02
Fired. The five-year tailed (below). The ten-year opened 4.99, went through 5.02 in the 9:45 AM bar after the business survey, spiked to 5.135 at the 1 PM sale, and closed at 5.11 on Treasury’s official row (5.114 on the CBOE index). The last official close at or above 5.11 was July 13, 2007.
Closes back under 7,757, the break failed a day late, and a desk trades it back down
Fired. Opened 7,761.94, five points over the line, and that was the high of the day. Under the line in the first half hour, never back above 7,741. Low 7,694.89 in the 1 PM bar. Closed 7,706.03, down 0.75%.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily and 5-minute bars
Bank fund (XLF)
Stays under 55.44, the next shelf is 53.75; the day HYG starts falling with the banks is a different story, and a desk treats it like one
Stayed under: closed 54.54, low 54.47. KBW Bank Index down 1.18%. HYG fell with the banks, so the check was run (below).
Yahoo Finance XLF, ^BKX
Oil, November contract (CL)
Closes under 88.18 and the scare is gone; dips in and closes back above 90 and the launch pad is doing its job; one headline that stops barrels and all of this waits
Both lines held. Overnight low 88.71, half a dollar over the launch pad; session high 93.06, under the 94.64 ceiling. Settled 92.16, up $1.64 (1.8%) from Tuesday’s 90.52 settlement.
Settlement as reported by CNBC; range from Yahoo Finance CLX26 5-minute bars
Bitcoin
82,814 is the floor; a daily close back under 82,283 and Monday was only the give-up orders
Held. Wednesday’s low was 83,513 on Coinbase (83,548 to 83,785 on Yahoo’s feeds), inside a thousand of the line. About 84,400 at 7:30 PM Eastern, down about 2% on the day.
Coinbase Exchange candles; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD
Dollar index
101, from the week-ahead: closes through and holds, heavier lean
Through. Closed 101.12, day high 101.23. That is the highest close since July 28.
Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB
Dollar-yen
158.05, from the week-ahead: close above and hold, next stop 160; don’t stand in front of it
Through during the New York day: first 30-minute close over the line at 9:30 AM Eastern, day high 158.40, about 158.30 at 7:30 PM. Tokyo was closed all week and reopened Thursday, the day the Bank of Japan’s 1.25% takes effect.
Chart levels for currencies, futures and Bitcoin are data-vendor prints (Yahoo Finance, Coinbase), not official tapes. The annotated charts shown in the video were built from the same feeds; every value on them is listed in the desk’s chart notes.
The ten-year and the sale
What I said
The record
Source
Five point one one. The government paid more to borrow money today than on any day since 2007. Nineteen years
Treasury’s official ten-year par yield for September 23: 5.11 (Tuesday: 4.96). In the full daily series back to 2006, the last close at or above 5.11 was July 13, 2007 (5.11); the last close above 5.02 was July 19, 2007 (5.04). The 2023 peak was 4.98. CNBC’s headline the same day: a 19-year high.
Up 0.15 in one day (4.96 to 5.11), the largest one-day rise in the official series in 2026. The next largest: 0.14 on March 20, 0.12 on May 15 and September 10.
Treasury daily par yield curve, 2026 file
Nine forty-five, a business survey came out. Strongest in five years, and the prices inside it, hottest in almost four
S&P Global flash U.S. composite PMI for September: 58.4, against 55.2 expected. The release: output growing at the fastest rate for over five years; input-cost inflation the highest since October 2022.
One of the Fed bosses said out loud this morning that they’re probably not done
Fed Governor Michael Barr, Wednesday morning: “Further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.” The Fed raised rates on September 16, so “adjustments” here means more hikes; the wires headlined it that way.
The outside money, last time sixty-one and a half percent. Today, fifty-four. The weakest showing from the outside money since the spring of 2020
$70 billion five-year note, September 23: indirect bidders 54.31% of competitive accepted. August 26: 61.51%. In TreasuryDirect’s five-year history, the last reading at or below 54.31% was March 25, 2020 (52.06%). Treasury defines an indirect bidder as a customer bidding through a dealer; that includes foreign central banks and big domestic funds, so it is the outside-money number, not a count of foreign buyers.
It sold at 5.03, and right before the sale everybody was quoting five even. Three hundredths over
High yield 5.033%, the first five-year auction above 5% since 2007 as reported. The when-issued yield at the 1 PM deadline was 5.001% to 5.002% as reported, a tail of about 3.1 hundredths of a percent, against a six-auction average of 0.6. Bid-to-cover 2.21 (August: 2.37). Tuesday’s two-year tailed by 0.2 hundredths.
TreasuryDirect (high yield, bid-to-cover); when-issued yield and the six-auction average as reported by investingLive and ZeroHedge
One number, and everything next to it
What I said
The record
Source
Stocks red. Gold red. Bitcoin red. Banks red. One thing
Wednesday’s closes against Tuesday’s: S&P 500 down 0.75% (7,764.64 to 7,706.03); Nasdaq Composite down 1.13%; Dow down 0.68%; Russell 2000 down 1.77%; chip stocks (SOXX) down 1.23%; KBW Bank Index down 1.18%; gold futures down 1.2%; Bitcoin down about 2%; the long-bond fund TLT down 1.58%. Up on the day: the dollar index (+0.39%) and oil (+1.8%).
Yahoo Finance daily closes; oil settlement as reported by CNBC (link above)
Down three quarters of a percent on a day like that isn’t panic
S&P 500 down 0.75%. The VIX closed 15.18.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC, ^VIX
The floor of the box is the Fed-day low, 7,508
The S&P 500’s September 16 low: 7,507.77.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily bars
The mortgage number
What I said
The record
Source
There’s a mortgage survey every week. The one that came out this morning was taken last week, before any of today, and it said 7.12. Highest since May of 2024. Another one comes out tomorrow
Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey, released Wednesday, September 23, for the week ending September 18: 30-year fixed conforming contract rate 7.12%, up from 6.97%; the MBA’s chief economist called it the highest level since May 2024. Applications fell 1.5%. A separate weekly survey (Freddie Mac’s) publishes on Thursdays; its September 17 reading was 6.95%. The video does not say what Thursday’s number will be.
Stayed under, second day, closed 54.54. Next shelf, 53.75, still there from July
XLF closed 54.54 (low 54.47) after 54.80 Tuesday. The July 1, 2026 low: 53.75. No dividend effect this week; the fund’s ex-dividend date was Monday, September 21.
Today HYG, the junk loans, fell with the banks. Every bond fund I pulled up fell today. TLT, the government’s own long IOUs, fell twice as hard as the junk. Today the junk fell least
Wednesday’s closes against Tuesday’s: HYG (high-yield corporate bonds) 78.68 to 78.10, down 0.74%. TLT (20+ year Treasuries) 81.75 to 80.46, down 1.58%. LQD (investment-grade corporate bonds) down 1.14%. IEF (7 to 10 year Treasuries) down 1.05%. The junk fund fell the least of the four; the long-Treasury fund fell 2.1 times as much.
Yahoo Finance HYG, TLT, LQD, IEF
Oil
What I said
The record
Source
Settled 92.16, up about two percent. The president got up at the U N and said they can’t be made to surrender. A ship got hit over there. One of the crew died. And oil went up a dollar sixty-four
November WTI settled at $92.16, up 1.8% ($1.64) from $90.52, snapping a five-day losing streak; Brent settled $103.08, up 3.9%. Iran’s president told the UN General Assembly that Iran “cannot be made to surrender.” A cargo vessel was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz; the UK Maritime Trade Operations office reported two casualties, and India’s foreign ministry said one crew member was killed and 27 evacuated. See the clarification below on “the president.”
The deal talk from last night hasn’t gone anywhere
On Tuesday, after his UN speech, the U.S. president said his envoys had met Iran’s delegation and that he expected a deal after the November election. On Wednesday the envoys held about three hours of talks through mediators; no agreement was announced.
Fox News live blog (link above); Tuesday’s remarks are sourced on Tuesday’s receipts
The weekly count showed more oil in the tanks, not less
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending September 18, released Wednesday 10:30 AM: commercial crude inventories up 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million; gasoline down 1.7 million; distillate down 0.4 million to 107.4 million, about 12% below the five-year average; Strategic Petroleum Reserve 284.6 million; refineries at 94.0%.
Overnight it dipped to 88.71, half a dollar over the launch pad at 88.18, and bounced. Ran up to 93 and stopped under the ceiling at 94.64
November crude’s session low was 88.71 (about 12:30 AM Eastern) and its high 93.06 (after the settlement, about 4:30 PM). September 8 low: 88.18. September 15 high: 94.64 was the level that flipped from floor to ceiling on Monday.
Yahoo Finance CLX26 5-minute and daily bars
Bitcoin
What I said
The record
Source
Eighty-four four tonight, and the low was under 84,000. Inside a thousand dollars of the line. Yesterday it was almost 2,400
Wednesday’s low: 83,513 on Coinbase, 83,548 on Yahoo’s hourly feed, 83,785 on Yahoo’s daily bar; all within 1,000 of 82,814. Tuesday’s low was 85,059 to 85,159 by venue, about 2,245 to 2,345 over the line. About 84,400 at 7:30 PM Eastern.
Coinbase Exchange candles; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD
As reported, about a billion dollars went into the Bitcoin funds on Monday, the biggest day this year
Net inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday, September 21: about $999 million, reported as the largest single day of 2026; Tuesday: about $715 million. Wednesday’s figure was not yet posted at publication.
Tokyo at eight tonight. Their rate hike kicks in tomorrow
The Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed September 21 to 23 and reopens Thursday, September 24 (8 PM Wednesday, Eastern). The Bank of Japan’s 1.25% policy rate, voted September 18, takes effect September 24.
JPX calendar; Bank of Japan statement (links above)
One of the big central banks over in Europe decides at three-thirty in the morning, expected to hold at zero
Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment, Thursday, September 24, 9:30 AM Central European Summer Time (3:30 AM Eastern). Policy rate 0.00% since June; a Reuters poll of 35 economists had all 35 expecting a hold.
Claims at eight-thirty. The visit’s at the White House all day. One o’clock, forty-four billion, seven years, third sale this week. Last time the outside money took sixty-one
Weekly jobless claims, 8:30 AM Eastern (prior week: 196,000). The White House arrival ceremony, bilateral meeting and state dinner for China’s president are Thursday. $44 billion seven-year note, competitive bids close 1:00 PM; August 27’s seven-year: indirect bidders 60.78%, high yield 4.512%.
Four-thirty, the Fed’s Thursday report, the one with the line in it. Friday, three-thirty, the headcount
The Fed’s H.4.1 balance sheet release is Thursday at 4:30 PM Eastern (last week’s custody line for foreign official accounts: $2,873,528 million). The CFTC Commitments of Traders report is Friday at 3:30 PM Eastern, covering positions as of Tuesday, September 22.
1. In the oil section the video says “the president got up at the U N and said they can’t be made to surrender.” That was Iran’s president, speaking to the General Assembly on Wednesday. The U.S. president spoke there on Tuesday; his remarks are on Tuesday’s receipts.
2. Bitcoin’s Wednesday low differs by venue (83,513 on Coinbase, 83,785 on Yahoo’s daily bar). The video says “under 84,000, inside a thousand dollars of the line,” which is true on every feed.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. I’ve been trading since 2001 and teaching the institutional framework, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, since 2012. The videos are the weekly version of what I read every morning. The morning version, dated the same way, is the Daily Market Research. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
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Receipts: Fed Week, Day Two — The Move Happens Before the Announcement (September 15, 2026) The paperwork behind Tuesday’s video on TikTok, recorded around 4 AM ET on September
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