Receipts: Three for Three. The Seven-Year Tails, the Ten-Year Closes at 5.18, and the Mortgage Survey Crosses 7. (Thursday, September 24, 2026)
The paperwork behind Thursday night’s video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded after the close on Thursday, September 24. Every number below has the day it was true and where it came from. Where a number came from a news outlet or a data vendor and not a government page, it says so. Three clarifications are owned at the bottom.
Wednesday night’s lines, and what Thursday did with them
| Chart | What Wednesday’s video said | Thursday | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| The mortgage number | The ten-year on Wednesday tells you what the bank says on Thursday; you read it a day early | Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, released Thursday: 30-year fixed 7.03%, up from 6.95% the week before. Reported as the first reading above 7% since January 2025 (the release itself carries no “highest since” line). | Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; “first time over 7% since January 2025” as reported by NPR and AP |
| The seven-year sale | Two tails is a price. Three is a pattern | Fired. $44 billion seven-year note sold at a high yield of 5.085%; the when-issued yield at the 1 PM deadline was 5.078% as reported, a tail of 0.7 hundredths of a percent. Indirect bidders 57.20% of competitive accepted (August 27: 60.78%). Bid-to-cover 2.42 (August: 2.50). Reported as the highest seven-year auction yield since April 1993. Tuesday’s two-year tailed 0.2 hundredths, Wednesday’s five-year 3.1: three tails in three days. | TreasuryDirect auction data (high yield, bid-to-cover, bidder dollars); when-issued yield and the 1993 comparison as reported by Dow Jones Newswires |
| The ten-year | Tails again, and the ten-year has no reason to come back under five | Fired. Treasury’s official ten-year par yield for September 24: 5.18 (Wednesday: 5.11). In the daily series back to 2005, the last close at or above 5.18 was July 6, 2007 (5.19). No year from 2008 through 2025 closed at 5.18. On the CBOE index it dipped to 5.087 in the 10:05 AM bar, was 5.139 in the 1 PM bar, and made its high, 5.181, in the 2 PM bar. | Treasury: daily par yield curve (history from the same series, 2005 to 2026); Yahoo Finance ^TNX 5-minute bars |
| The Fed’s Thursday report | Four-thirty, the Fed’s Thursday report, the one with the line in it | H.4.1, released Thursday 4:30 PM with balances as of Wednesday, September 23: U.S. Treasury securities held in custody for foreign official and international accounts $2,610,259 million, up $12,428 million on the week. The week before: down $561 million. (Total custody, including agency paper: $2,885,345 million, up $11,817 million.) This week’s three auctions settle September 30, so none of this week’s purchases are in that number. | Federal Reserve H.4.1, September 24 · September 17 release |
| S&P 500 | Back inside the box; 7,757 is the ceiling again, the floor is 7,508 | Inside. Closed 7,704.13, down 1.90 points (0.02%). Low 7,662.57 in the 11:10 AM bar, high 7,719.01 in the 12:55 PM bar. Stocks came off the lows after a Reuters report around 12:15 PM that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased deal. Dow down 0.31%, its third straight loss; Nasdaq Composite up 0.01%. | Yahoo Finance ^GSPC 5-minute and daily bars; the report and the close as reported by CNBC |
| Oil, November contract (CL) | One headline that actually stops barrels, it goes for the top, and everything else waits | Poked through and settled back on the line. Overnight low 91.23; noon high 96.78 after Iran’s security council secretary said the strait stays closed until its conditions are met; the phased-deal report hit around 12:15 PM; settled $94.61, up 2.7%, three cents under 94.64. Brent settled $106.60, up 3.4%. | Settlements as reported by CNBC; range from Yahoo Finance CLX26 5-minute bars; the strait remarks as reported by Iran International; the deal report by Reuters |
| Bank fund (XLF) | Under 55.44; the day HYG falls harder than TLT, that’s the day it’s the loans | Closed 54.53 (Wednesday 54.54), high 54.815. HYG down 0.27%, TLT down 1.29%, LQD down 0.71%, IEF down 0.55%. The junk fund fell least for the third day running. | Yahoo Finance XLF, HYG, TLT, LQD, IEF |
| Bitcoin | 82,814 is the line; a daily close back under 82,283 and Monday was only the give-up orders | Held on the close, wicked the line by venue. Thursday’s low around 5:35 AM Eastern: 82,709 on Coinbase, 82,852 on Yahoo’s 5-minute feed, 82,997 on CoinGecko. High 84,930 (Coinbase, 10 AM hour). About 84,400 at 5 PM. | Coinbase Exchange candles; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD; CoinGecko |
| Dollar-yen | Close above 158.05 and hold, the next stop is 160; or Tokyo stuffs it back under | Both ran (see Thursday afternoon’s video). Overnight low 157.79 to 157.84 by feed, high 159.04 at 11:30 AM, about 158.85 at 5:30 PM. Japan’s finance minister, Thursday: “the principles since the previous joint intervention remain alive.” | Yahoo Finance JPY=X; the quote as reported by Reuters |
| Dollar index | 101 | Held: low 101.00, close 101.27. | Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB |
| Gold futures | 4,273 | Held: low 4,278, close 4,310. Not spoken. | Yahoo Finance GC=F |
Chart levels for currencies, futures and Bitcoin are data-vendor prints (Yahoo Finance, Coinbase, CoinGecko), not official tapes.
The rest of what was said
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Seven percent. Your parents paid that in the nineties | Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed averaged between roughly 7% and 8% for most of the 1990s. | Freddie Mac PMMS history |
| Third sale in a row they took less | Indirect bidders’ share of competitive accepted, this month against last: two-year 57.79% (August: 66.0%); five-year 54.31% (61.5%); seven-year 57.20% (60.78%). | TreasuryDirect auction data (link above) |
| The two-year closed at 4.87, up again | Treasury’s official two-year par yield: 4.87 (Wednesday 4.85). Ten minus two: 0.31. | Treasury daily par yield curve |
| Jobless claims, 197,000 | Initial claims for the week ending September 19: 197,000, down 1,000; the prior week revised up to 198,000. Four-week average 202,250. Continuing claims 1,719,000. | Department of Labor weekly claims release |
| One of the Fed bosses said today, as reported, another hike by the end of the year is reasonable | New York Fed President John Williams, in London on Thursday: “it’s likely that another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year. That seems to me a reasonable way of thinking about it.” | As reported by Reuters via Yahoo Finance |
| The bets on an October hike went from a coin flip yesterday to north of seventy percent | CME FedWatch probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting, as reported: 54.2% early Wednesday; between 69.7% and 77.5% in Thursday’s reports, depending on the snapshot. | As reported by Phemex (Wednesday), KuCoin (Thursday) and CNBC (Thursday) |
| The visit from Beijing came and went. Two pandas and a tariff truce out to January. The chips were fine | China’s president made a state visit to the White House on Thursday and announced two pandas for Atlanta’s zoo. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Wednesday that the tariff truce is extended to January 10. No chip or export-control announcement was made. Nvidia closed down 0.41%; the SOXX semiconductor fund closed up 0.06%. | As reported by AP and the CBS News live blog; closes from Yahoo Finance |
| About $400 million of people who were sure got closed out overnight, most of them long. The funds kept buying, five days in a row | Coinglass data, as reported Wednesday night: about $400 million of crypto positions liquidated in the prior 12 hours, about $360 million of them longs, as Bitcoin dipped under 84,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows: +$999 million Monday, +$715 million Tuesday, +$347 million Wednesday, the fifth straight day of inflows; Thursday’s figure was not posted at publication. | As reported by KuCoin (Coinglass), KuCoin (Farside, Sept 23) and TFTC (Farside, September table) |
| Friday, ten o’clock, the consumer survey, final number. The first read had people expecting prices up 4.6 percent next year, the highest since June | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, September preliminary (released September 11): sentiment 47.8; one-year inflation expectations 4.6%, up from 4.0% in August, the highest since June. The final September reading is Friday, September 25, 10 AM Eastern. | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| Three-thirty, the headcount | CFTC Commitments of Traders, Friday 3:30 PM Eastern, positions as of Tuesday, September 22. | CFTC release schedule |
| Next Wednesday, 183 billion from this week’s three sales gets paid for, the same morning the government’s inflation report comes out | The two-year ($69 billion), five-year ($70 billion) and seven-year ($44 billion) all issue September 30. The BEA releases August personal income and outlays (the PCE inflation report) and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, September 30, 8:30 AM Eastern. September 30 is also the end of the quarter. | TreasuryDirect auction data (issue dates); BEA release schedule |
Not said on camera, for the record
Treasury’s official 30-year par yield closed 5.47, reported as the highest since 2004; the seven-year 5.10. New home sales for August: 684,000 annualized, against about 620,000 expected. AAA’s national averages Thursday: regular $4.48, diesel $6.51. Utilities were the worst sector of the day, down 0.88%. Sources: Treasury daily par yield curve; Census Bureau new residential sales; AAA; sector table as reported by StockTitan.
Three clarifications
1. Oil’s 94.61 is the settlement price reported by CNBC. The November contract kept trading after the settlement and printed 94.76 at 4:55 PM Eastern on Yahoo’s feed, twelve cents over the line. The video grades the settlement, which is the number a settlement lookup returns.
2. Bitcoin’s Thursday low differs by venue: 82,709 on Coinbase (about 105 dollars under 82,814), 82,852 on Yahoo (38 dollars over), 82,997 on CoinGecko. The video says “it kissed it or went a hundred dollars through it, depending on where you look,” which is true on every feed. The $400 million liquidation figure covers the 12 hours ending around 9 PM Eastern Wednesday, so “overnight” starts Wednesday evening.
3. “The highest since 1993” refers to the seven-year auction’s high yield (5.085%), as reported by Dow Jones. The ten-year’s “since 2007” is from Treasury’s official daily series.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. I’ve been trading since 2001 and teaching the institutional framework, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, since 2012. The videos are the weekly version of what I read every morning. The morning version, dated the same way, is the Daily Market Research. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
