Receipts: Who Bought the Dollar. Oil Paid in Dollars, the Refineries, the Ten-Year at 5.24, and the Line on the Dollar Index. (Monday, September 28, 2026)
The paperwork behind Monday night’s video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded Monday evening, September 28, after the close. Every number below has the day it was true and where it came from. Where a number came from a news outlet or a data vendor and not a government page or an exchange, it says so. Seven clarifications are owned at the bottom.
Sunday night’s lines, and what Monday did with them
| Chart | What Sunday’s video said | Monday, September 28 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil, November contract (CL) | If it opens up on the rejection, pokes over 94.64 and closes Monday back under it, the sellers still own it and you stay short toward 91; out on a close back over 94.64 | That branch fired. The Sunday 6 PM reopen bar opened 93.58; the high was 96.54 in the 7:00 AM bar; the low 91.25 at 1 PM; settled $92.60, up 19 cents (0.2%) from Friday’s 92.41. Brent settled $105.28, up 96 cents. The morning spike was on Saturday’s rejection; the fade came on Bloomberg’s report that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline had resumed exports at about 3.5 million barrels a day after repairs. | Settlements as reported by Bloomberg via Rigzone and CNBC; range from Yahoo Finance CL=F 15-minute bars; the pipeline as reported by Bloomberg (wire copy via Rigzone) |
| The dollar index (DXY), the line somebody asked for | Not given until this video. The line is the 2026 high, 101.80, set June 24; no day this year has closed above it | Closed 101.20 (Friday 100.97), high 101.31, low 100.98. The June 24 bar: high 101.80, close 101.61, the highest close of 2026. September 24 closed 101.29. Monday did not touch 101.80. | Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB daily and hourly bars; Investing.com (52-week range 95.55 to 101.80) |
| The Dow (US30), the other line somebody asked for | Not spoken; here for the record | Closed 51,481.51, down 347.11 (0.67%). The floor to watch is Thursday, September 24: the lowest close since the September 16 hike, 51,349.98, and that day’s low, 51,124.02. The September high close is 53,686.11 on September 3; the last close above 52,000 was 52,048.83 on September 21. A close under 51,124 with the ten-year up is the lenders winning; a close back over 52,049 and the box holds. | Yahoo Finance ^DJI daily bars; the close as reported by CNBC |
| S&P 500 | Inside the box, 7,508 to 7,757; in the box you do nothing | Inside. Closed 7,683.69, down 59.72 (0.77%); high 7,724.15, low 7,666.60. The Nasdaq Composite closed 26,820.38, down 0.92%. | Yahoo Finance ^GSPC and ^IXIC daily bars; closes as reported by CNBC (link above) |
| Bitcoin | 82,814 is the line; a daily close under and you’re out; a wick under it that closes back over is the buy | The wick under it happened. Monday’s low was 82,580 on Yahoo and 82,510 on Coinbase, both under 82,814, in the 10 AM hour Eastern. The UTC daily close was 83,457 on Coinbase (Yahoo’s day was still open at the time of writing, last 83,588), back over the line. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows for Monday were not published by 9 PM; Friday’s was +$134.5 million. | Coinbase Exchange candles; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD; Farside Investors ETF flow table |
| Bank fund (XLF) | Under 55.44; no buys under the line | Held under. Closed 54.19, down 1.19%; high 54.72. | Yahoo Finance XLF daily bars; Investing.com |
| Dollar-yen | Out since Friday’s close under 158.05; back on over 158.05 on a day nobody from either government is talking | Still out. 157.37 at 5 PM Eastern (Friday 157.28); high 157.86, low 156.52. The low came after Japan’s top currency diplomat told Reuters that markets should take the “very clear message” from Tokyo and Washington “at face value.” No intervention was reported. | Investing.com USD/JPY historical data; the remark as reported by Reuters via Yahoo Finance |
| Gold futures (December) | Not a line; spoken as “lowest since the start of August” | Settled $4,168.40, down $152.80 (3.54%), from Friday’s 4,321.20. The lowest settle since August 4 (4,152.60); the day’s low, 4,143.10, was the lowest since August 5. | Settle as reported by Investrade; range from Yahoo Finance GC=F; the “lowest since August 5” as reported by Reuters via USAGOLD |
Chart levels for currencies, futures and Bitcoin are data-vendor prints (Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Coinbase), not official tapes; the CME settlement pages were unreachable Monday evening, so the oil and gold settles are the numbers the wires quoted as “settled at.”
The chain, link by link
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday the president said no deal. The deal was about a strip of water a lot of the world’s oil ships through, and that country has been blocking it for months | Saturday on the White House lawn: “I rejected their deal.” Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, tabled Friday at the UN. Kpler, as reported by Reuters Monday: shipments through Hormuz are running about 7.4 million barrels a day this month against roughly 20 million before the conflict. Monday: Qatari and Pakistani mediators still working on a revised text; Iran’s delegation was reported leaving New York Tuesday with no further talks scheduled; no tanker incident and no strike Sunday or Monday. | As reported by NBC News, Reuters via Yahoo Finance, AP via KSAT and AFP via News24 |
| Oil is paid for in dollars, almost everywhere on earth | Deutsche Bank, as quoted in March: “globally traded oil is priced and invoiced in USD.” The European Central Bank’s survey work put the dollar’s share of the EU’s oil import invoices at around 85%; Eurostat’s figure for petroleum imports is 81.5%. There is no single official worldwide percentage, which is why the video says “almost.” | Fortune; ECB, international role of the euro (2019 box); Eurostat |
| A big ship holds two million barrels. At Monday’s price that’s about a hundred and eighty-six million dollars. India does that about twice a day | A very large crude carrier holds about 2 million barrels. 2,000,000 × $93 = $186 million (see clarification 4 for the price). India’s crude import bill for August 2026 was $11.7 billion for 19 million tonnes, per provisional government data as reported, which is about 63 tanker-loads of dollars a month, roughly two a day. | MOL, VLCC capacity; India’s bill as reported by The Wire and Business Standard |
| There is no building. It’s about a dozen big banks on two private computer networks, most of it run out of London, and trillions of dollars a day go through it | The Bank for International Settlements’ triennial survey (April 2025, published September 2025): $9.6 trillion a day in foreign-exchange turnover, with the dollar on one side of 89.2% of it; the United Kingdom handles about 38% of global turnover, the United States about 19%. The two interbank matching systems are EBS (owned by CME Group) and LSEG Matching (the former Reuters system). The most recent published concentration figure is older: the top five dealers handled about 53% of volume and the top ten about 75% (Coalition Greenwich, 2013 data); Euromoney’s 2025 ranking puts Deutsche Bank, UBS, JPMorgan, Citi and Barclays at the top. | BIS Triennial Survey 2025; Euromoney (LSEG Matching); Coalition Greenwich |
| Monday the ten-year went to five point two four percent, the highest since two thousand seven. The two different rents: the Fed’s one-night rent and the ten-year | Treasury’s official par yields for September 28: two-year 4.92 (from 4.81), ten-year 5.24 (from 5.17), thirty-year 5.56 (from 5.49). The ten-year printed 5.274 intraday, “its highest since June 2007,” as reported. The Fed’s target range has been 3.75 to 4.00 since September 16 and did not change Monday. | Treasury: daily par yield curve; the intraday high as reported by FXStreet; Federal Reserve, September 16 statement |
| The dollar index is six other countries’ money in a bag, set at a hundred in the seventies, and the euro is more than half the bag | ICE U.S. Dollar Index weights: euro 57.6%, yen 13.6%, pound 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish krona 4.2%, Swiss franc 3.6%. Created March 1973 with a base of 100; the composition changed once, in January 1999, when the euro replaced several European currencies. | ICE, U.S. Dollar Index; MarketsWiki |
| Over there, a bank borrowing money for one night pays about two and a half percent. Here it’s four. The woman who runs Europe’s central bank sat in front of their parliament Monday, and the word she used was measured | ECB deposit facility rate 2.50%, raised on September 10 and effective September 16. Fed funds target 3.75 to 4.00%. Bank of Japan 1.25% since September 18. Christine Lagarde to the European Parliament’s economic committee Monday: “While the shock is too large to look through, we view a measured response as appropriate.” | ECB, September 10 decision; Bank of Japan, September 18; the hearing as reported by Reuters, as syndicated |
| The small accounts, the phone apps, are betting the dollar goes up harder than any week in three years | CFTC Commitments of Traders, legacy futures-only, positions as of Tuesday, September 22 (released Friday, September 25): U.S. dollar index futures, non-reportable positions 3,338 long against 1,501 short, 69.0% long, the 151st highest of the last 160 weekly reports (the top 6%). Computed from the CFTC’s own rows. | CFTC legacy futures-only data (Socrata) |
| Saudi Arabia’s pipe across the desert, the one that got hit by drones earlier this month, is already running again | Bloomberg, Monday 9:48 AM: the East-West pipeline began exporting from Yanbu after repairs, at least 3.5 million barrels a day, about six weeks from full rate. The pipeline was hit by drones launched from Iraq on September 10 and 11 and shut on September 11 as a precaution. | Bloomberg (wire copy via Rigzone); the strike as reported by Al Jazeera |
Not said on camera, for the record
Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Monday, in a keynote on AI and the economy: total inflation ran “an estimated 3.8 percent in the 12 months leading into August, almost double our target,” and she expects “continued pressure on inflation from the AI buildout and from the pass-through of higher oil prices.” She did not call for another increase. The market’s odds of an October hike ended the day around 72% by the CME’s own tool as republished, from 64% Friday. Washington and Beijing released reciprocal lists of about $30 billion of goods each for tariff cuts. There is no shutdown risk October 1; the government is funded through December 11. This week: job openings and consumer confidence Tuesday at 10 AM, New York Fed President Williams at 2 PM Tuesday with text and press; PCE and the GDP third estimate Wednesday at 8:30 AM (consensus PCE +0.4% for the month, core +0.3%), the same day last week’s $183 billion of two-, five- and seven-year notes are paid for and the quarter ends; the jobs report Friday at 8:30 AM (consensus about +90,000, unemployment 4.1%). Sources: Federal Reserve, Cook remarks; CME FedWatch as republished; CNBC (tariff lists); New York Fed media advisory; BLS release schedule; TreasuryDirect auction data.
Seven clarifications
1. Oil did not close down on the day. It gave back almost all of a four-percent overnight gain and settled 19 cents higher than Friday. The video says so; the point is that oil ended the day back under 94.64 while the dollar kept its gain.
2. “About a hundred and eighty-six million dollars” is two million barrels at a round $93. November WTI settled 92.60 and November Brent 105.28 on Monday; India’s official crude basket averaged $90.19 in August. The same ship is anywhere from about $180 million to $195 million depending on which barrel it carries.
3. The fifty-dollar IOU is a worked example with round numbers, not a real bond. Fifty dollars on a thousand is 5.0%; fifty on nine hundred is 5.6%. The arithmetic is the lesson; the numbers are not a quote.
4. “Here it’s four” for the one-night rent is the top of the Fed’s 3.75 to 4.00 target range; the effective rate trades a little under 4. Europe’s 2.5 is the ECB deposit facility rate. The comparison is between the two policy rates, not between what any one bank actually charged Monday night.
5. Euro-dollar’s Monday close differs by feed: 1.1370 on Investing.com’s 5 PM row, 1.1373 built from Yahoo’s hourly bars. The chart in the video uses the hourly build. Friday was 1.1391 and 1.1395 on the same two feeds.
6. Bitcoin’s Monday low differs by venue: 82,510 on Coinbase, 82,580 on Yahoo. Both are under 82,814, and both closed the UTC day back over it.
7. “Trillions of dollars a day” is the BIS figure of $9.6 trillion from the April 2025 survey, which counts every kind of currency trade; the spot trades that move the price you see are about $3 trillion of it. The “dozen big banks” is a round description; the last published concentration figures are from 2013 and are linked above.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. I’ve been trading since 2001 and teaching the institutional framework, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, since 2012. The videos are the evening version of what I read every morning. The morning version, dated the same way, is the Daily Market Research. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
