Receipts: 74 Isn’t a Price. It’s a Show of Hands. How the Services Price Number Is Made, the Ten-Year’s Poke Over 5.34, and Tuesday’s 58 Billion Dollar Sale. (Monday, October 5, 2026)
The paperwork behind Monday night’s video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded Monday evening, October 5, after the close. Every number below has the day it was true and where it came from. Where a number came from a news outlet or a data vendor and not a government page, an exchange, or the survey’s own release, it says so. Fourteen clarifications are owned at the bottom, including one line that was cut out of the video after it was shot.
Sunday night’s lines, and what Monday did with them
Sunday’s video gave five prices to hold up against the finish. Two of them were crossed in the middle of Monday and uncrossed by the close. None of the rules, as spoken, was triggered. The quotes below are Sunday’s exact words.
| Chart | What Sunday’s video said | Monday, October 5 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| The ten-year, and your mortgage | “Hold it up against two numbers. 5.34, that high from Thursday morning. And 5.16, the lowest it got Friday morning.” The rule was for Wednesday’s finish: “Say it finishes Wednesday above 5.34 … Mortgage quotes go up Thursday morning.” | Crossed in the middle of the day, finished under. On the five-minute feed the ten-year printed above 5.34 in every bar from 12:55 PM through 2:25 PM, nineteen bars, about 95 minutes, with the high of 5.349 in the 1:30 PM bar. It then fell to 5.311 at the 3:00 PM bar. Treasury’s official par yield for October 5: ten-year 5.31, against 5.28 Friday. Nowhere near 5.16 (the day’s low was 5.264 at 8:20 AM). Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year index: 7.61%, up 0.04 from Friday’s 7.57%. | Treasury: daily par yield curve; the intraday path from Yahoo Finance ^TNX five-minute bars; Mortgage News Daily, 30-year fixed |
| The dollar index (DXY) | “The plan from Thursday night is on … You’re wrong, and you’re out, the day the dollar index finishes under 101.8.” | Never under. The low for the session, from the Sunday 6:00 PM reopen to Monday’s 5:00 PM close, was 101.855 in the 6:50 PM Sunday bar. Zero five-minute bars printed under 101.80. The high was 102.535 at 12:05 AM Monday, during Asian and early European hours. 102.12 at 5:00 PM Eastern, up 0.19 from Friday’s 101.93. Euro-dollar 1.1225 at the close, yen 157.93. The wires called it the dollar’s highest since April 2025 and tied the move to the euro side (Spanish and French politics), not to the Fed. | Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB five-minute bars; Trading Economics, dollar index (102.27 at an unstated time); as reported by FXStreet |
| The Dow (US30) | “I said if it finishes Friday under 50,906, you sell whatever stocks you bought last week. It never got under it all day. As of Friday’s close you’re still holding.” | Crossed in the morning, finished well above. The Dow printed under 50,906 in the 9:40, 9:45, 9:50 and 9:55 AM bars, about 25 minutes, with the low of the day 50,862.85 in the 9:55 bar, 43 points under the line. It was back over by 10:00 and closed 51,267.90, up 90.94 (0.18%). A second source prints the close as 51,273.12; the difference is five points. | Yahoo Finance ^DJI five-minute and daily bars; investingLive wrap |
| Oil, November contract (CL) | “The oil price I’ve told you to watch is the same one as last week. 94.64. If oil finishes a day above that, those funds decided the water’s staying closed.” | Nowhere near it. West Texas crude for November settled at 89.43 on Monday, down 1.68 (1.8%) from Friday’s 91.11, which is 5.21 under the line. Session low 88.74 at 2:40 PM. Brent for December settled 100.32, down 1.9%. | Settle as reported by CNBC (Reuters copy) and Kitco; the range from Yahoo Finance CL=F five-minute bars |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | “On Bitcoin the price to watch was 82,814, and it’s been above that all weekend.” | Not mentioned Monday night; still above. Monday’s range on the vendor feed was about 84,973 to 86,714, and about 85,700 at 4:00 PM Eastern, roughly 2,900 above the line. | Yahoo Finance BTC-USD five-minute bars; CoinDesk live blog |
Chart levels for the dollar index, futures and Bitcoin are data-vendor prints (Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics), not official tapes; the oil settle is the number the wires quoted as “settled at.” A five-minute bar is labeled by its start time, Eastern.
The 74: the ISM services report for September
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| At 10:00 this morning a report came out with a number in it. 74. | The Institute for Supply Management released its Services PMI report for September on Monday, October 5, at 10:00 AM Eastern. The Prices Index registered 74.0, up 1.4 points from August’s 72.6. In the release’s own words it is “the highest since July 2022 (74.5 percent),” it has been “above 70 percent for the sixth time in seven months,” and it “has exceeded 60 percent for 22 straight months.” | ISM Services PMI report, September 2026 (press release) |
| The number doesn’t come from the government. It comes from a private club … It goes by I S M, and it’s been around since 1915. | ISM describes itself as “the world’s first professional association for supply chain, founded in 1915,” a not-for-profit association with “a community of over 200,000 professionals in more than 100 countries.” It is not a government agency. | The release’s “About ISM” section (same link); Wikipedia, Institute for Supply Management |
| Every month the club sends a few hundred of those buyers the same short list of questions. Factories get their own list. This one is everybody who isn’t a factory. | The report is “based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives” on ISM’s Services Business Survey Panel, “diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product.” Eighteen industry groups are listed, from agriculture and construction through health care, finance, retail, transportation, and public administration. Manufacturing has its own report, released the first business day of the month. The panel size is reported by a secondary source as more than 370 executives; ISM’s own page for the panel is behind a login. | ISM release (same link); Wikipedia, Services ISM Report on Business |
| That’s more than two thirds of the whole economy. | Reuters: the services sector “accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity.” The Bureau of Economic Analysis puts private services-producing industries at about 73% of GDP (2025). | As reported by Reuters via The Spokesman-Review; BEA via FRED, series VAPGDPSPI (fred.stlouisfed.org; the page refuses automated requests, so it is named and not linked) |
| Compared to last month, did you pay more, the same, or less? … No dollar amounts. Three boxes, and you check one. | “Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month.” The release prints, for each question, the percentage reporting higher, the same, and lower. No dollar amounts are collected. | ISM release (same link) |
| Everybody who said more counts as one. Everybody who said the same counts as half. Everybody who said less counts as nothing. Add it up, and that’s the number, give or take a decimal. | A diffusion index: the percentage reporting higher plus one half of the percentage reporting the same. September’s prices responses, as printed: 50.3% higher, 47.5% the same, 2.2% lower. 50.3 + 23.75 = 74.05; the published index is 74.0. | ISM release (same link); Wikipedia, Purchasing Managers’ Index (the formula) |
| If as many people said less as said more, the room would be a 50. Anything over 50 means more of them are paying more. | From the release: “An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.” The same arithmetic applies to each sub-index: an even split of higher and lower gives 50. | ISM release (same link) |
| 74 isn’t even the number on top of that report. The number on top blends four other questions … that one said business is still growing, just slower than the experts guessed. | “The Services PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.” Prices are not in it. September: headline 54.9 (August 55.4), Business Activity 56.5 (61.7), New Orders 59.8 (60.9), Employment 50.1 (47.8), Supplier Deliveries 53.2 (51.3). (56.5 + 59.8 + 50.1 + 53.2) ÷ 4 = 54.9. The headline came in under every forecast on record: 55.0 (FXStreet), 55.2 (Reuters), 55.7 (CMC Markets). It was the 27th straight month above 50. | ISM release (same link); forecasts as reported by FXStreet and Reuters via The Spokesman-Review |
| The buyers get to write a comment, and the club prints them. No names. Just what business they’re in. The man who runs the survey said fuel came up twice as often as any other problem. | The chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, in the release: “Tariffs and fuel cost impacts were the most cited issues impacting respondents’ supply chains; in fact, fuel costs were mentioned twice as often as any other single issue impacting performance.” Respondent comments are printed under the industry name only. | ISM release (same link) |
| A store buyer wrote that shipping containers from overseas are double the cost. | Retail Trade respondent: “Shipping containers from overseas are double the cost, causing price increases.” | ISM release (same link) |
| And one from a builder. Quote. “Half of buyers walking through the door cannot qualify to purchase.” | Construction respondent, in full: “Interest rates continue to drive buyers out of the market. Half of buyers walking through the door cannot qualify to purchase.” | ISM release (same link) |
| Not spoken: the other fuel comments | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting: “The high cost of diesel fuel has increased the cost of freight dramatically.” Other Services: “The cost of fuel continues to impact our cost of providing services.” Health Care and Social Assistance: “Had vendor communications about more fuel charges and possible tariff reinstatement.” | ISM release (same link) |
| Those buyers filled out their answers in September. | From the release: ISM “receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses.” The report covers September; it was published October 5. | ISM release (same link) |
| Not spoken: the other services survey | S&P Global’s US Services PMI for September, final, released the same morning: 58.8, against a flash reading of 58.7 and 56.5 in August. A different panel and a different headline construction, which is why the two surveys can disagree. | Trading Economics, US services PMI; S&P Global’s own comparison of the two surveys (spglobal.com, bot-walled, named and not linked) |
| That’s older than sliced bread. I looked it up. Sliced bread is 1928. | Commercially sliced bread was first sold in July 1928, in Chillicothe, Missouri. ISM dates to 1915. | Wikipedia, Sliced bread |
The ten-year on Monday: before the report, after it, and the finish
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| By 1:00 this afternoon, the rate the government pays to borrow for 10 years … was the highest it’s been since 2002. | On the five-minute feed: 5.264 at 8:20 AM (the day’s low), about 5.30 by 9:00, 5.307 in the bar before the report, 5.292 to 5.298 in the first ten minutes after 10:00 (the headline miss), 5.319 by 10:30, 5.334 at noon, 5.341 at 1:00 PM, 5.349 at 1:30 PM (the high), 5.343 at 2:00, 5.332 at 2:30, 5.311 at 3:00. Thursday October 1’s high on the same feed was 5.342, which was reported then as the highest since 2002, so Monday’s 5.349 extends that. Kitco’s afternoon report: the ten-year “settled near 5.31%, its highest since April 2002.” Two-year 4.84, thirty-year 5.66 on Treasury’s page. | Yahoo Finance ^TNX five-minute bars; Treasury; as reported by Kitco and CNBC |
| Slower business and higher prices, on the same page … So the lenders held back, and the rate kept climbing into the afternoon. | The order of events on the tape: the yield dipped about one hundredth in the first ten minutes after the headline miss, turned up, and was above its pre-report level by 10:30. Kitco’s wording for the day: the ISM prices index “keeping Treasury yields elevated.” Trading Economics: “cost pressures intensified.” The wires did not name the buyers or sellers; the mechanism in the video is the standard one (a lender who expects higher prices asks for more interest). | Yahoo Finance ^TNX five-minute bars; as reported by Kitco and Trading Economics |
| The mortgage quote went up to 7.61. | Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed index for Monday, October 5: 7.61%, up 0.04 from Friday. It is the highest print of the five days shown on the page; whether it is a longer-run high was not checked. | Mortgage News Daily, 30-year fixed |
| Not spoken: the Fed bets | Odds of a rate increase at the October 27 and 28 meeting, as reported Monday: “roughly 26%” (Reuters, citing CME FedWatch, “down from 71% the previous week”); about 23% (FXStreet’s “77% hold”); about 22% (CNBC). December: about 88% (FXStreet). The ten-year rose on Monday without those October odds moving much. | As reported by Reuters via The Spokesman-Review, FXStreet and CNBC; Fed meeting calendar |
Oil, the tanker, and the president’s post
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Oil finished at 89.43 a barrel, down about a dollar seventy. | WTI November settled 89.43, down 1.68 from Friday’s 91.11 (1.8%). Brent December settled 100.32 (down 1.9%). Reuters’ reasons: crude exports from the Middle East rising, and the G7’s agreement, announced Friday, to release emergency stocks (a 100 million barrel plan as reported). | As reported by CNBC (Reuters copy); OilPrice.com |
| It fell on a day another tanker was reported hit in that strip of water in the Middle East. | At about 12:37 PM Eastern (1637 UTC) the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations office reported that the master of a tanker off the Musandam Peninsula, in the Strait of Hormuz, said the vessel was hit by an unknown projectile; fire in the engine room, crew fighting it, no injuries or pollution reported. One outlet counted it as the third tanker hit since Sunday. The vessel’s name was not confirmed on the UKMTO page. | As reported by The Maritime Executive; Iran International live blog |
| Oil has been getting out of that water in record amounts. The president posted that himself this afternoon. | The president’s post on his platform, stamped 2:26 PM Eastern by CBS News: what is driving up gasoline “is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis,” blaming refineries instead. Earlier in the morning the Treasury secretary, as rendered by a live blog, said Iran loaded zero crude onto tankers last month. Oil had been falling all day before the post; the post is confirmation of the exports story, not the cause of the move. | As reported by CBS News live updates; Iran International |
| Not spoken: the other oil items | Overnight, one wire said the Saudi East-West pipeline had been halted and two others said it was flowing; the Aramco chief said Monday that without that pipeline oil “could have hit $200.” OPEC+ kept November targets unchanged on Sunday. The Energy Information Administration’s monthly outlook is due Tuesday. | As reported by The National; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook |
Tuesday’s three-year sale, and the rest of the week
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday. At 1:00 Eastern the government borrows 58 billion dollars for 3 years, in one sale. | Treasury’s schedule: a $58 billion three-year note, a new issue, auction closing Tuesday, October 6, at 1:00 PM Eastern, settling October 15. Wednesday, October 7: $39 billion ten-year (a reopening), 1:00 PM. Thursday, October 8: $22 billion thirty-year (a reopening), 1:00 PM. | TreasuryDirect, upcoming auctions |
| Last month the government paid 4.47% to borrow for 3 years. | The September 8 three-year auction ($58 billion): high yield 4.474%, bid-to-cover 2.72. Treasury’s par three-year yield that day was 4.44. | TreasuryDirect, auction results; Treasury par curve, September |
| Today that same kind of loan is going for about 4.97. Half a percent more, in one month. | Treasury’s par three-year yield for October 5: 4.97. Against the September auction’s 4.474%, that is 0.496 higher. Against September 8’s par 4.44, it is 0.53 higher. | Treasury par curve, October |
| If Tuesday’s sale goes at that, half a percent on 58 billion is 290 million dollars a year in extra interest, from one sale. | 0.5% of $58,000,000,000 is $290,000,000 a year; over the note’s three years, about $870 million. It is conditional on where Tuesday’s sale actually clears, and it compares a new sale to last month’s sale; the government does not pay more on debt it already sold. | Arithmetic on the two Treasury figures above |
| At least until Wednesday at 2:00, when the Fed publishes the notes from its last meeting. | The minutes of the September 15 and 16 meeting are scheduled for Wednesday, October 7, at 2:00 PM Eastern. How to read them was Sunday’s lesson, on that receipts page. | Fed Board October calendar; October 4 receipts |
| Not spoken: who else talks Tuesday | The Fed Board’s calendar puts the Vice Chair for Supervision in St. Louis at 10:45 AM Tuesday, on bank regulation; a New York Fed president’s panel appearance at 9:05 AM is reported by secondary calendars only. Sunday’s research had the Board speaker on Thursday; the Board’s own page says Tuesday. | Fed Board October calendar |
Stocks and the dollar, for the record
| What | Monday, October 5 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,773.95, up 51.23 (0.66%). | Yahoo Finance ^GSPC; investingLive |
| Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 | Composite 27,477.31, up 1.05%, a record close; Nasdaq 100 31,076.44, up 0.87%, a record close. The wires credited big technology and AI names (one chipmaker up 2.1% to a record) and cheaper oil. Not spoken on camera; the video stayed on the ten-year. | Yahoo Finance ^IXIC and ^NDX; as reported by Yahoo Finance live blog |
| Dow | 51,267.90, up 90.94 (0.18%); low 50,862.85 at 9:55 AM; high 51,404.86 at 3:15 PM. | Yahoo Finance ^DJI five-minute bars |
| Dollar index, euro, yen | DXY 102.12 at 5:00 PM (Yahoo) or 102.27 (Trading Economics, time unstated); euro-dollar 1.1225 (low 1.1166); dollar-yen 157.93 (high 158.30). | Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB, EURUSD=X, JPY=X five-minute bars; Trading Economics; FXStreet on the yen |
| Gold, December contract | 4,169.70 per Kitco’s afternoon report (Friday 4,162.30); the exchange settle was not read directly. | As reported by Kitco |
Fourteen clarifications
1. One line was cut out of the video after it was shot. On tape, after “there’s another sale Wednesday,” I said “and another one Tuesday.” The thirty-year sale is Thursday. The words were removed in the edit and the card on screen at that moment reads Wednesday and Thursday. The cut is about a second and a half; the video is 11:03.
2. The number on the Dow, 50,906, may not sound like 50,906 on the tape. The line is 50,906, the chart on screen at that moment shows it, and the table above grades against it.
3. “A report came out with numbers in it” on tape; the script said “a number.” The 74 is the Prices Index inside the ISM services report, not the report’s headline, and the video says so a few minutes later.
4. “A few hundred buyers” rests on a secondary source (more than 370 executives). ISM’s own page for the survey panel is behind a login and was not read. The eighteen industries in the panel include construction, mining, agriculture, utilities and public administration, so “everybody who isn’t a factory” is ISM’s own split, not a figure of speech.
5. “More than two thirds of the whole economy” is Reuters’ phrase for the services sector; the BEA’s private services-producing share is about 73%. The two measures draw the line in slightly different places.
6. “Give or take a decimal”: the printed percentages give 74.05 and the published index is 74.0, after rounding and seasonal adjustment. “Out of every 100 buyers, about 50, about 48, and 2” are the percentages (50.3, 47.5, 2.2), not a head count; 2.2% of a few hundred is several people, not two. The ending’s “2 out of 100 said less” is the same percentage.
7. “The highest it’s been since 2002” is the wires’ label (CNBC and Kitco: April 2002), carried over from Thursday’s 5.34. One data vendor labels Monday’s level “the highest since March 2022” on a different series. 5.349 and the 95-minute window over 5.34 are five-minute prints from a data vendor; Treasury’s page, which I pointed to on camera, shows one closing figure a day, 5.31 for Monday, and no highs or lows. 5.34 itself is a vendor-feed high from Thursday.
8. “Then big money showed up to lend at that rate” is an inference from the price turning down at 5.34 and the size of the market; no wire named the buyers, and nobody has to. “Somebody with a lot of money was waiting at 5.34” is the same inference.
9. “About an hour and a half” is 95 minutes of five-minute bars, 12:55 to 2:25 PM, all of which also closed over 5.34. “Around 1:00” is when it went over; on the feed the first bar over the line is 12:55.
10. “Down about a dollar seventy” is 1.68. “Another tanker” counts Sunday’s reports; the shipping office did not name Monday’s vessel and one wire’s name for it was not confirmed. The president’s post came at 2:26 PM, four minutes before the 2:30 settle; oil was down all day before it, and the video gives the exports as the reason and the post as the president saying the same thing.
11. “Cheaper oil today usually takes a few weeks to turn into cheaper diesel” is the standard lag between crude and the pump and is stated as “usually.” “If it ever does” and the fuel surcharge line are opinion.
12. The 290 million dollars a year is conditional (“if Tuesday’s sale goes at that”) and compares a new sale to last month’s sale. Tuesday’s result will be on TreasuryDirect by about 1:02 PM and the comparison will be on the next receipts page. “There’s another sale Wednesday” is the $39 billion ten-year; Thursday’s is the $22 billion thirty-year.
13. “It comes out the first week of every month”: ISM publishes the services report on the third business day of the month at 10:00 AM Eastern. October’s report is due Wednesday, November 4. “The one tool it has against high prices is making borrowing cost more” is a simplification; the Fed also runs its balance sheet, and the rate is the tool the video is about.
14. Two ad-libs on tape: “twice a day a price I’d given you got crossed” means twice on Monday, and “before the opens” is the stock market open. The Dow close is 51,267.90 on one feed and 51,273.12 on another; the Dow’s and the dollar’s five-minute bars are vendor prints, not exchange tapes.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. I’ve been trading since 2001 and teaching the institutional framework, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, since 2012. The videos are the evening version of what I read every morning. The morning version, dated the same way, is the Daily Market Research. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
