Receipts: Good News, Red Finish. Six Report Cards, the Call That Landed, and the Number Next to Each One. (Tuesday, October 13, 2026)
The paperwork behind Tuesday night’s video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded Tuesday evening, October 13, after the stock close, the oil settlement and the 4:00 PM Bitcoin print. Every number said on camera is in the tables below with the time it was true and the document it came from: the bills, the ten-year, the six report cards and which way each stock finished, the Dow against Friday’s close, Bitcoin at 4:00 and the overnight liquidations, what ether, solana and the crypto dollar pay, oil’s settle and the after-hours jump, the two Fed speakers, Wednesday’s inflation consensus, gold, the euro, the franc, the yen, Microsoft, the chips and the phone companies. Where the tape and the record differ, it is owned in the clarifications at the bottom.
The chores: the bills, the ten-year, Wednesday
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| The government sold 272 billion dollars of short IOUs today, the kind it pays back by spring, at around 4 percent. | Treasury auctioned three bills on Tuesday October 13: 95 billion of 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.980%, 95 billion of 13-week bills at 4.085% (bid-to-cover 2.68), and 82 billion of 26-week bills at 4.200% (bid-to-cover 2.76). 95 + 95 + 82 = 272 billion. The 26-week bill is repaid in April. Only bills are sold this week; the next coupon sale is the 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday October 21, with a 5-year note on Thursday October 22. | TreasuryDirect: auction announcements, data and results; Treasury: tentative auction schedule (PDF) |
| The ten-year, the rate your mortgage follows, came back from the holiday and finished 5.21, down from 5.24 on Friday. Under the line. | Treasury’s daily par yield curve for Tuesday October 13 shows the 10-year at 5.21%, against 5.24% on Friday October 9 (no publication Monday, the bond market’s Columbus Day close). The 2-year was 4.79% (4.80% Friday) and the 30-year 5.56% (5.60%). The ten-year line has stood since October 1. | Treasury: daily par yield curve, October 2026; Receipt 31, October 12 |
| Tomorrow at 8:30, the inflation number. 3.6 is what the paid predictors expect, some say 3.7, up from 3.4 last month, and the jump is energy, as reported. A hotter number than that and the lenders have a reason to sell their IOUs, which is what pushes your rate up. | The September Consumer Price Index is scheduled for Wednesday October 14 at 8:30 AM Eastern. The Dow Jones consensus reported by CNBC is a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.6% year over year, with core at 0.2% and 2.5%; RBC and some other forecasters have the headline at 3.7%. August was 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year (core 0.3% and 2.4%). The previews attribute the step-up to energy. | CNBC, October 13, 2026: what to expect from September CPI (cnbc.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); RBC Economics: U.S. week ahead, September CPI; BLS: Consumer Price Index news release (bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm; the page answers 403 to automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
| At 2:00 the Fed puts out its booklet, the one where it asks businesses around the country how it’s going and writes the answers down in words. It’s called the Beige Book. | The Federal Reserve’s calendar lists the Beige Book for Wednesday October 14 at 2:00 PM Eastern. It is the Fed’s summary of anecdotal reports from businesses and contacts in each of the twelve districts, published eight times a year ahead of each policy meeting; the next meeting is October 27 to 28. | Federal Reserve: October 2026 calendar |
The report cards: six reporters, six red finishes
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Four of the 30 Dow stocks reported before the open. Two big banks, the drug company, the insurer. Plus two banks that aren’t in the Dow. Five of the six beat the profit number they were supposed to hit. Every one of the six finished red. | JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth (Dow components) reported Tuesday October 13 before the open, with Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Against consensus earnings per share: Goldman 17.01 vs about 13.65 (beat), Citigroup 2.85 vs about 2.65 (beat), Wells Fargo 1.87 vs about 1.84 (beat), Johnson & Johnson 2.59 adjusted vs 2.53 (beat), UnitedHealth 4.69 adjusted vs 4.12 (beat), JPMorgan 5.57 vs about 5.90 (miss). Closes: JPM 331.43 (down 0.86%), GS 891.91 (down 0.23%), WFC 80.74 (down 3.10%), C 124.53 (down 5.60%), JNJ 248.61 (down 5.73%), UNH 377.76 (down 0.20%). Reuters’ close report: “bank earnings roll in,” chipmakers fall, S&P 500 flat. | Reuters, October 13, 2026: S&P 500 flat as chipmakers fall and bank earnings roll in; CNBC: bank earnings live updates, October 13, 2026 (cnbc.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); 24/7 Wall St., October 13, 2026: Goldman, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo results; JPM, GS, WFC, C, JNJ, UNH price history (Stock Analysis) |
| Two of them had a blemish, one’s gap, what it pays you on savings against what it charges you on the loan, came in a hair short, and the drug company took a lawsuit charge. The one that missed had a reason, a loss on some bonds it sold, and even that one said the gap got 13 percent wider than a year ago, and raised what it expects for the whole year. | Wells Fargo reported net interest income of 12,517 million dollars, up 2% from the second quarter and 5% from a year ago, against an estimate near 12,640 million (about 1% short); net interest margin was 2.43%. Johnson & Johnson’s GAAP earnings were 0.09 a share after a talc litigation charge; its device sales also missed. JPMorgan reported net interest income of 27.0 billion, up 13% from a year ago, raised its full-year net interest income outlook to about 106.2 billion from 105.5 billion, and reported a 658 million dollar loss on securities that lowered earnings per share to 5.57. | Wells Fargo third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 (sec.gov; the page answers 403 to automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); The Motley Fool, October 13, 2026: why Johnson & Johnson stock dropped today; JPMorgan Chase third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 (sec.gov; named rather than linked); Investing.com: JPMorgan Chase Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
| The clean one. The bank with the best third-quarter sales it’s had in ten years, the gap 14 percent wider than a year ago, raised its outlook, and finished down 5.6 percent. | Citigroup reported revenue of 23.8 billion dollars, up 8%, its best third-quarter revenue in a decade; net interest income up 14% from a year ago; net income 5.2 billion; and raised its full-year outlook for net interest income excluding markets to mid-to-high 6% growth from 5% to 6%. The stock closed at 124.53, down 5.60%, the day’s low 124.44. | Citigroup third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 (sec.gov; named rather than linked); Investing.com, October 13, 2026: Citigroup Q3 2026 slides, best quarterly revenue in a decade (investing.com; named rather than linked); Stock Analysis: C price history |
| The investment bank beat its profit number by more than 3 dollars a share, and the stock was up about 4 percent before the opening bell. That was the high. 931. By the close it was 892, under Monday’s finish. The insurer did the same thing. Up 4 before the bell, finished a hair red. | Goldman Sachs reported earnings of 17.01 a share against estimates of about 13.65 (a 3.36 beat), revenue of 18.68 billion against about 17.03 billion, and equities trading revenue of 6.44 billion, up 72%. The stock was up about 4% in premarket trading, reached 931 during the session, and closed at 891.91, under Monday’s close of about 893.97. UnitedHealth beat (4.69 vs 4.12 adjusted) and raised its full-year outlook to 20.50, was up about 4% premarket, and closed at 377.76, down 0.20%. | 24/7 Wall St., October 13, 2026; Goldman Sachs: third-quarter 2026 results; Stock Analysis: GS price history; Investing.com, October 13, 2026: UnitedHealth earnings beat by 0.57 (investing.com; named rather than linked); Stock Analysis: UNH price history |
| The biggest bank’s money guy said, on a recorded call, that with rates this high people might start moving money out of checking and into CDs. He said it as a risk. To the bank. | On JPMorgan’s third-quarter call, the chief financial officer said this rate cycle is “arguably even more unprecedented than the last one” and that higher rates could migrate deposits from checking into certificates of deposit. Deposit migration to higher-paying accounts raises a bank’s funding cost; that is why it is discussed as a risk. | Investing.com: JPMorgan Chase Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
The Dow, and Wednesday’s two banks
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| The four Dow stocks that reported all finished red, the drug company lost almost 6 percent by itself, the Dow lost 180 points, and it still finished at 51,670, 15 points over where it ended last week. Energy was the best group in the market today. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Tuesday at 51,670.10, down 180.45 points (0.35%) from Monday’s 51,850.55; against Friday’s 51,654.95 that is about 15 points. The S&P 500 closed at 7,805.45, down 0.02%; the Nasdaq-100 at 30,569.48, down 0.31%. Johnson & Johnson fell 5.73%. Energy led the sectors; healthcare, down 1.3%, lagged. | Reuters, October 13, 2026; Yahoo Finance: stock market today, October 13, 2026; Yahoo Finance: Dow Jones Industrial Average; Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq-100; TheStreet: stock market today, October 13, 2026 (thestreet.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
| Tomorrow two more big banks report before the open, and one of them got a 1.2 billion dollar penalty from the Treasury today. The day before it shows everybody its report card. | Bank of America reports Wednesday October 14 before the open (release about 6:45 AM Eastern, call 8:30) and Morgan Stanley the same morning (release about 7:30, call 9:30). On Tuesday October 13 the Treasury Department announced record enforcement actions against Bank of America by FinCEN, the OCC and OFAC totaling 1.2 billion dollars; the Secretary’s statement said “even the biggest financial institutions are not above the law.” The bank takes the charge in the third quarter. | U.S. Treasury, October 13, 2026: record enforcement actions against Bank of America; Morgan Stanley: third-quarter 2026 investor conference call; MarketScreener: Bank of America to report third-quarter 2026 results October 14 (marketscreener.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
Bitcoin, the liquidations, and the rest of crypto
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Monday at 4:00 it was just under the line. Today at 4:00 it was 83,219. Over it. | On Coinbase’s BTC-USD feed the 4:00 PM Eastern minute (20:00 UTC) on Tuesday opened at 83,206.49 and closed at 83,219.11. The CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York for 4:00 PM was 83,140.61. Monday’s 4:00 PM minute closed at 82,784.08, under the line; Tuesday’s was over it. The Bitcoin line was given Wednesday October 7; Bitcoin has no official close, and the 4:00 PM Eastern price is the one graded here. | Coinbase Exchange API: BTC-USD one-minute candles around 20:00 UTC, October 13, 2026; CF Benchmarks: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York; Receipt 31, October 12 |
| Overnight it dipped just under 81,000. In the 24 hours up to this morning, 813 million dollars of borrowed bets across crypto got sold, and not by the people who made them. 686 million of that 813 was people betting up. By the afternoon Bitcoin had already been back over 84,000. | CoinDesk’s morning report, citing Coinglass, put 24-hour liquidations across crypto at about 813 million dollars as of about 7:00 AM Eastern, up 284% on the day; a Coinglass snapshot relayed by KuCoin had 814 million in total, 686 million from long positions and 128 million from shorts. Bitcoin dipped just under 81,000 overnight and ran above 84,000 during the day; Coinbase’s rolling 24-hour low and high at about 5:25 PM were 80,927.48 and 84,070.33. CoinDesk’s live blog had it whipsawing between 81,000 and 84,000 before settling near 83,000. | CoinDesk, October 13, 2026: bitcoin, ether slip and rebound; KuCoin news flash, October 13, 2026: liquidations reach 814 million, longs 686 million (Coinglass data); CoinDesk live updates, October 13, 2026; Coinbase: Bitcoin price |
| The company that’s famous for buying bitcoin bought 250 this time, its smallest buy of the year, as reported. | Strategy disclosed on Monday October 12 a purchase of 250 bitcoin for about 21.5 million dollars, its smallest purchase of 2026, bringing its holdings to 848,250 bitcoin. | Yahoo Finance, October 12, 2026: Strategy buys 250 bitcoin |
| Bitcoin isn’t the whole thing, it’s about 59 percent of it. Ether, the second biggest, and solana, one of the big ones. They pay you to hold them. It’s called staking. Ether pays about 2.2 percent a year. Solana about 5. The crypto dollar pays about 3.5 for members at the biggest exchange, which is the government’s 4 with a haircut, because the companies behind those tokens park the dollars in government IOUs. The ten-year pays 5.21. | CoinGecko’s global figures at 5:15 PM Eastern: total crypto market value about 2.82 trillion dollars, Bitcoin 59.25% of it, ether 10.84%. Ether’s market value (about 306 billion) is second to Bitcoin’s; solana’s (about 63 billion) ranks behind the two largest dollar tokens and XRP. Lido’s staked-ether rate was 2.245% (7-day average 2.24%) on October 13; Staking Rewards listed solana’s reward rate at 4.92%. Coinbase pays about 3.5% on USDC for Coinbase One members (3.6% on its business treasury page). The 6-week, 13-week and 26-week bills sold Tuesday at 3.98%, 4.085% and 4.20%; the 10-year par yield was 5.21%. The dollar-token issuers’ Treasury holdings were covered on September 21. | CoinGecko: global cryptocurrency market charts; CoinGecko: ether; CoinGecko: solana; Lido: stETH APR (protocol API); Staking Rewards: solana; Coinbase Business: treasury (USDC rewards); TreasuryDirect: auction results; Tether: second-quarter 2026 attestation release |
| Look at the week. Bitcoin, the one that pays nothing, down under 3 percent. Ether, down about 7. Solana, down 11. The funds that hold ether in a box for regular stock accounts sent money out nine days in a row through Friday, as reported. Korea fell 5 percent or more on the chips, and Bitcoin dipped and finished up on the day. | CoinGecko seven-day changes at 5:23 PM Eastern: Bitcoin down 2.63%, ether down 6.77%, solana down 11.41%; Bitcoin’s 24-hour change was up 0.49%. The Block reported on October 10 that spot ether ETFs had recorded nine consecutive days of net outflows through October 9, totaling 697.2 million dollars. CoinDesk reported Bitcoin rebounding above 83,000 overnight as South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 5% with Samsung and SK Hynix down sharply, “decoupling” from Korean stocks and Nasdaq futures. | CoinGecko: Bitcoin; The Block, October 10, 2026: ether ETFs extend outflow streak to nine days (theblock.co; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); CoinDesk, October 13, 2026: bitcoin rebounds above 83,000 as it decouples from Korean stocks; Nikkei 225 close, October 13, 2026 (BigGo relay) |
Oil: 2:30, 2:36, the Gulf, the pump
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Oil finished 94.14, up 40 cents. It got to 94.70 during the day, got over the line for a few minutes for the first time in two weeks, and settled back under it. | November West Texas Intermediate (CL) settled Tuesday October 13 at 94.14 dollars a barrel, up 0.40 (0.4%), its highest close since September 24, per Reuters and Bloomberg; Brent settled at 105.69, down 0.96. The session high of 94.70 and low of 91.70 are from an industry feed; the time of the high was not pinned. The oil line has stood since September 27, and the members had it before the open. See clarification 1. | Reuters, October 13, 2026: oil prices settle mixed; Bloomberg via Rigzone, October 13, 2026; investingLive, October 13, 2026: crude settles up 0.40 at 94.14 |
| Minutes after the close, loud booms near the headquarters of the biggest oil company on earth, over there, as reported, and the barrel ran to about 95.70 after the bell. | Reuters reported loud booms heard near Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran on Tuesday; the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a Houthi missile and fragments fell on a residential area; Aramco did not comment. Newsquawk carried the headline at 18:36 UTC, 2:36 PM Eastern, six minutes after the 2:30 settlement window. The Houthis warned people near Aramco facilities to evacuate, and Aramco told staff to work from home Wednesday. An industry CFD feed showed WTI near 95.73 at 4:59 PM Eastern. | Reuters via StreetInsider, October 13, 2026: loud booms heard near Saudi Aramco headquarters in Dhahran (streetinsider.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); Middle East Eye, October 13, 2026: Saudi Arabia hit by multiple explosions; investingLive, October 13, 2026 |
| The Gulf is coming back. The government count Monday said 30 percent of the Gulf of Mexico still shut, down from 72 on Friday. Thursday at noon the tanks count the week the Gulf shut in. | The Marine Minerals Administration’s Monday October 12 report: 604,503 barrels a day, 29.63% of Gulf oil production, still shut in, with five platforms evacuated; the peak was 71.51% on Friday October 9. No Tuesday update was found. The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending October 9 is scheduled for Thursday October 15 at 12:00 PM Eastern because of the holiday. | Energy News Beat: Gulf oil and gas activities in response to Hurricane Isaias (MMA figures); EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status Report release schedule |
| Your pump, 4.31 this morning, down 4 cents on the day. | AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was 4.314 on October 13, against 4.356 a day earlier and 4.369 a week earlier. | Rigzone, October 13, 2026: AAA averages; AAA: gas prices |
Rates and the two Fed speakers
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| There’s two rents on money. The Fed sets the overnight one, what banks pay each other. The lenders set the ten-year one, at the auctions, and they pushed it over five on their own. One of the Fed bosses said today, as reported, that those high long-term rates are “doing a little bit of the work” for him. | The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after the September 16 increase. Speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi on October 13, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said higher long-term yields are “doing a little bit of the work” of tightening, pointing to housing and autos. The 10-year par yield has been above 5% since late September. | Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, October 13, 2026: Waller says higher yields doing some of the Fed’s work; Federal Reserve: October 2026 calendar; Treasury: daily par yield curve |
| The other one said one more raise might make sense this year and he sees no reason for more next year, and the bets say about 3 in 4 no raise at the end of this month. | New York Fed President John Williams told Bloomberg on October 13 that one more rate increase “may be appropriate” this year and that he currently sees no reason the Fed would need to do more in 2027. Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor, derived from 30-day fed funds futures, showed a 77% probability of no change at the October 27 to 28 meeting and 23% for an increase, as of 4:55 PM Eastern; a December increase was priced near 69%. | Reuters via Investing.com, October 13, 2026: Fed’s Williams sees no need for a rate hike in 2027 (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); CNBC, October 13, 2026: Williams on rate hikes; Investing.com: Fed Rate Monitor (investing.com; named rather than linked) |
Gold and the rest of the list
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| December gold’s last trade was about 4,184, under Friday’s settle, and tomorrow’s finish is the grade. | The December 2026 COMEX gold contract (GC) traded between 4,170.25 and 4,224.87 on Tuesday with a last trade of 4,184.30 on an industry feed; spot gold was near 4,161 in late trading. The official settlement was not retrieved; see clarification 2. Friday October 9’s settle was 4,216.30. | Investing.com: gold futures historical data (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); Kitco PM, October 13, 2026; Yahoo Finance: Gold Dec 26 (GC=F) |
| The euro bounced to 1.12 from Monday’s low, the dollar backed off its 18-month high ahead of the number. Still under the line from September 30. | EUR/USD closed near 1.1198 on Tuesday (day’s range 1.1153 to 1.1205) after Monday’s 17-month low near 1.1150 to 1.1152, the weakest since May 2025. The dollar index closed near 102.2 after Monday’s 102.61, an 18-month high. France’s National Assembly began examining the 2027 budget on Tuesday; the French 10-year was 4.84%. The euro line has stood since September 30. | Trading Economics: euro; Trading Economics: dollar index; FXStreet, October 13, 2026: French risk spreads into the euro as the Assembly takes up the budget; Trading Economics: France 10-year; Investing.com: EUR/USD historical data (investing.com; named rather than linked) |
| The franc. The dollar got to 0.8345 against it, two pips short of last week’s high, then turned around. | USD/CHF’s Tuesday high was 0.8345, the low 0.8313, and the close near 0.8329 on Investing.com’s daily row; 0.8347, last week’s high and the highest since May 2025, less 0.8345 is 0.0002, two pips. | Investing.com: USD/CHF historical data (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); Receipt 30, October 11 |
| Japan’s prime minister told their parliament the two finance ministers are still in close contact about the currency, and the dollar dropped to 157.83 during the day, and finished 158.33, back above the top of the box. | Prime Minister Takaichi told parliament on October 13 that the U.S. and Japanese finance ministers remain in close contact on foreign exchange, per MUFG’s and Scotiabank’s daily notes; USD/JPY traded as low as 157.83 and closed near 158.33 (open 158.53). Tokyo reopened Tuesday after Monday’s holiday. The yen box has stood since September 30. The finance ministry’s dollar sales in July were covered on October 11. | MUFG Research: FX daily snapshot, October 13, 2026; Scotiabank via FXStreet, October 13, 2026; TradingHours: JPX holidays; Investing.com: USD/JPY historical data (investing.com; named rather than linked) |
| Microsoft, 543, second finish in a row above Friday’s, so software keeps the lead, and the chip index lost a fifth straight day, the same day the boss of one of the biggest chip companies said some of the money pouring into chips looks like casino gambling, as reported. | Microsoft (MSFT) closed at 543.45, up 0.43%, above Friday’s 535.07 for a second session (Monday 541.15). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.23%, its fifth straight loss; the chip ETF (SMH) fell 0.49%, a fourth straight red close; Micron fell 3.61%. Reuters’ close report said chip stocks fell after Broadcom’s chief executive likened some investment in the sector to “casino gambling,” with competition fears from a Chinese memory maker adding to the move. | Stock Analysis: MSFT; Stock Analysis: SMH; Stock Analysis: MU; Reuters, October 13, 2026 |
| The phone companies, all three green, all three above Friday’s low for a second day. | AT&T (T) closed at 22.85, up 1.60%, against Friday’s low of 21.96; Verizon (VZ) at 43.53, up 1.75%, against 40.81; T-Mobile (TMUS) at 153.73, up 1.22%, against 147.90. All three also closed above those lows on Monday. | Stock Analysis: T; Stock Analysis: VZ; Stock Analysis: TMUS; Receipt 31, October 12 |
Clarifications, owned
1. The oil settle of 94.14 is the figure reported by Reuters and Bloomberg; the exchange’s own settlement page could not be reached before this was posted. The session high of 94.70 comes from an industry feed and the clock time of that print was not pinned, so “over the line for a few minutes” rests on that feed. “About 95.70 after the bell” is an industry CFD price at 4:59 PM Eastern, not a futures settlement. “Minutes after the close” is the 2:36 PM Eastern headline time against the 2:30 settlement window.
2. No official COMEX settlement for December gold was retrieved Tuesday. “About 4,184” is the last trade on an industry feed; the grade for gold is Wednesday’s finish, as said Monday. 4,216 is Friday’s settle.
3. “813 million dollars of borrowed bets across crypto” is Coinglass’s 24-hour liquidation total as reported by CoinDesk at about 7:00 AM Eastern. It covers all coins on the tracked exchanges, not Bitcoin alone, and the 24-hour window is not the same thing as the dip under 81,000; the two are said together because they happened in the same night. “686 million of that 813” takes the long-position figure from a Coinglass snapshot that showed 814 million in total. “Every forced sale needs a buyer” and “somebody with cash and an alarm clock” describe how a liquidation works (the exchange’s sale meets whoever has bids resting), not a count of who bought.
4. The staking and dollar-token rates are what the protocols and the exchange published, and they move: ether’s 2.2 is Lido’s protocol rate on October 13, solana’s “about 5” is Staking Rewards’ 4.92%, and the crypto dollar’s “about 3.5” is Coinbase’s USDC rate for Coinbase One members (3.6% on its business page). “The government’s 4” is the 13-week bill at 4.085% and the 1-month at 4.10%. “If you hold it to the end” on the ten-year is the condition: sold early, a Treasury can lose value.
5. “Ether, the second biggest” is by market value, behind Bitcoin. Solana is “one of the big ones,” not third: the two largest dollar tokens and XRP are ahead of it by market value.
6. “Five of the six beat the profit number” is earnings per share against consensus. JPMorgan’s miss includes a 658 million dollar loss on securities, which is the “loss on some bonds it sold.” Wells Fargo’s “gap a hair short” is net interest income about 1% under estimates. Johnson & Johnson’s “lawsuit charge” is the talc litigation charge; it also missed on device sales, which the video did not say.
7. “The best third-quarter sales it’s had in ten years” is Citigroup’s best third-quarter revenue in a decade. “Raised its outlook” is the raised full-year outlook for net interest income excluding markets. “Who sells a stock on the best news it’s had in ten years” and “who’s buying from them” are the usual reading of a sell-the-news day, said with “usually”; no source counts the buyers and sellers.
8. Goldman’s “up about 4 percent before the opening bell” and its 931 high are the same move; 931 is about 4.1% above Monday’s close, and the time of the high was not pinned. “892” is 891.91. UnitedHealth’s “finished a hair red” is a 0.20% decline.
9. “About 3 in 4 no raise at the end of this month” is the 77% hold probability on Investing.com’s futures-derived monitor at 4:55 PM Eastern; the exchange’s own FedWatch page was not fetched. “Doing a little bit of the work” is the quoted phrase from Bloomberg’s report of Governor Waller’s remarks; “somebody else is doing his job, and he said so, in public, and kept the title” and “must be nice” are the joke, not the quote. The Williams line is a paraphrase of his Bloomberg interview as reported by Reuters and CNBC.
10. The inflation consensus is the Dow Jones poll reported by CNBC (0.6% on the month, 3.6% on the year, core 2.5%); “some say 3.7” is RBC and others. “The jump is energy” is the previews’ explanation. “A hotter number and the lenders have a reason to sell their IOUs” is the mechanism, not a forecast of the number.
11. Arithmetic: 272 billion is 95 + 95 + 82; “around 4 percent” covers 3.98, 4.085 and 4.20; “15 points over where it ended last week” is 51,670.10 against Friday’s 51,654.95; “lost 180 points” is 180.45; “almost 6 percent” is 5.73; “down 5.6 percent” is 5.60; “more than 3 dollars a share” is 17.01 against 13.65; “two pips” is 0.8347 less 0.8345; “down 4 cents” is 4.3143 against 4.3556; “30 percent, down from 72” is 29.63% Monday against the 71.51% Friday peak; “under 3 percent, about 7, 11” are CoinGecko seven-day changes of 2.63, 6.77 and 11.41; “about 59 percent” is 59.25.
12. The currency closes (euro 1.12, franc 0.8329, yen 158.33, dollar index 102.2) are Investing.com’s daily rows stamped about 5:25 PM Eastern, not official fixes; treat them as within a few pips. “The dollar dropped to 157.83 during the day” is the day’s low; the time of the prime minister’s remark relative to that low was not pinned, so the video says “during the day,” not “on the sentence.”
13. “The chip index lost a fifth straight day” is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index; the chip ETF was on its fourth straight red close. “Casino gambling” is the Broadcom chief executive’s phrase as carried in Reuters’ close report; “the guy selling the chips” and “the house talking” are the joke. “Korea fell 5 percent or more” is the Kospi.
14. On tape and in the auto-captions, “Gulf” comes out as “golf,” “franc” as “frank,” “ether” as “either,” and “tomorrow’s number” as “to ours is number.” The numbers meant are the ones in the tables. “You guys are on fire” at the casino line is an aside. On the door, the economics class mentioned in passing is not for sale and is not on the site; the four things on the site are the daily research, the Core Framework, the Oil & Gas Cheat Code and the free desk.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. Since 2001 I’ve learned, over time, which reports matter and why. These pages are the evening version: the numbers with a date. The morning version, before the open, is the Daily Market Research, and that’s where the lines live. The method underneath it, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, is the Core Framework. The oil piece of the week, the four pages and what to read on each, is the Oil & Gas Cheat Code. It’s all there if you want it. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
