Receipts: The List Gets Graded. Sunday’s Lines, Monday’s Tape, and the Number Next to Each One. (Monday, October 12, 2026)
The paperwork behind Monday night’s video, on YouTube and TikTok. Recorded Monday evening, October 12, about 7:30 PM Eastern, after the stock close and the 4:00 PM Bitcoin print. Every number said on camera is in the tables below with the time it was true and the document it came from: the holiday calendar, oil’s settle against the line, the Gulf count and the Saudi airport, the ten-year that didn’t print, gold overnight, the euro’s new low with the bond market closed, the franc and the yen, Microsoft and the chips, the Dow, the phone companies, Tuesday’s six reporters, and Bitcoin’s 4:00, 5:00 and 6:00 prints. Where the tape and the record differ, it is owned in the clarifications at the bottom.
The calendar
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| The bond market was closed today, Columbus Day, so the ten-year rate didn’t print a number. Friday’s 5.24 is still the last one. Tomorrow it’s back. | SIFMA recommended a full close of the U.S. bond market on Monday October 12. Treasury publishes no par yield curve on a day the market is closed; the last published 10-year par yield is Friday October 9 at 5.24%. The next publication is Tuesday October 13. The stock exchanges were open; Tokyo was closed for Sports Day. | SIFMA holiday schedule; Treasury: daily par yield curve, October 2026; TradingHours: JPX holidays |
| There’s nothing long for sale all week, the government’s only selling the short IOUs, the bills, starting tomorrow. The next long one is the 20-year, next Wednesday. | Treasury’s tentative schedule for the week of October 12: the 6-week, 13-week and 26-week bills auction Tuesday October 13 (the Monday bills moved by the holiday), the 17-week bill Wednesday October 14, the 4-week and 8-week bills Thursday October 15. No notes or bonds are auctioned this week. The next coupon sale is the 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday October 21, followed by the 5-year TIPS on Thursday October 22. | Treasury: tentative auction schedule (PDF) |
| Wednesday at 8:30, the inflation number. 3.6 is what the paid predictors expect, some of them say 3.7. | The September Consumer Price Index is scheduled for Wednesday October 14 at 8:30 AM Eastern. Consensus for the headline year-over-year rate is 3.6% on the FactSet and Investing.com tallies (3.4% in August) and 3.7% in the Reuters poll and RBC’s forecast; core is expected at 2.4% to 2.5%. It is the last CPI before the Fed’s October 27 to 28 meeting. | Investing.com: September CPI preview (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); Morningstar: CPI forecasts (FactSet consensus); Admiral Markets: September CPI preview (Reuters poll figures) (admiralmarkets.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); BLS CPI release schedule (bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm; the page answers 403 to automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
| And the tanks, the oil count, I told you Wednesday 10:30. The holiday moves that too. Thursday at noon. | The EIA’s holiday schedule lists the Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending October 9 with an alternate release date of Thursday October 15 at 12:00 PM Eastern, because of the Columbus Day holiday. The standard slot is Wednesday at 10:30 AM. Sunday’s video said Wednesday 10:30; see clarification 1. | EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status Report release schedule |
Oil: the settle, the Gulf, the airport, the airline
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday night the members had one number on the oil chart. Today oil ran to 94.36, came up short of it, and settled at 93.74, up 2 percent. Still under the line. | The November West Texas Intermediate contract (CL) settled Monday October 12 at 93.74 dollars a barrel, up 1.89 (2.06%) from Friday’s 91.85, after trading between 89.61 and 94.36. Brent settled at 106.65, up 1.93, its highest since September 15. The oil line has stood since September 27; the day’s high came up short of it. | Reuters via Yahoo Finance, October 12, 2026: oil prices rise on Saudi Arabia attacks; Newsquawk crude wrap, October 12, 2026; Receipt 30, October 11 |
| Sunday’s government count said 58 percent of the Gulf of Mexico still shut, down from 72, so those barrels are walking back in. | The Marine Minerals Administration (the federal offshore regulator, formerly BSEE and BOEM) reported about 1.17 million barrels a day, 57.54% of Gulf oil production, still shut in as of midday Sunday October 11, with personnel returning to platforms. The peak was 71.51% on Friday October 9, with 69% on Saturday. No Monday count had been published when this was recorded. The regulator’s standing rule: undamaged facilities return once safety checks are complete. | Anadolu Agency, October 11, 2026: Gulf shut-ins ease to 57.5%; ABC Columbia, October 12, 2026; BOE Report, October 9, 2026: 71.5% shut in; Marine Minerals Administration: Hurricane Isaias response |
| But the people over there said they hit the Saudi airport Saturday, and a Saudi barrel and a Gulf of Mexico barrel aren’t the same barrel. The funds pay for the one with no date. That’s your 2 percent, and the wires said the same thing. | The Houthis claimed responsibility for the Saturday October 10 strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, which Saudi authorities said killed 13 people; a tanker was also struck near Sohar, Oman, and another damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters’ Monday report attributed the day’s gain to the attacks on Saudi Arabia outweighing the prospect of more supply from the Gulf restart and the announced Russian diesel shipments. “A Saudi barrel and a Gulf barrel aren’t the same barrel” is the argument, not a quote. | Reuters via Yahoo Finance, October 12, 2026; Morocco World News, October 12, 2026: oil near two-week highs on Houthi attacks |
| Thursday at noon the tanks count last week, the week the Gulf shut in. | The report due Thursday October 15 covers the week ending Friday October 9, the week Hurricane Isaias shut in Gulf production and came ashore. | EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status Report release schedule |
| And that airline, the one whose fuel bill jumped 62 percent. Down 2.5 percent today with oil up 2. | Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed Monday at 80.11 against Friday’s 82.17, down 2.51%. Delta’s third-quarter report on Friday October 9 showed adjusted fuel expense of about 4.1 billion dollars, up 62%, and a cut to full-year guidance. | Yahoo Finance: DAL history; Live and Let’s Fly, October 9, 2026: Delta Q3 results |
Rates and gold
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Rates. Closed. No number, exactly like I said Sunday. Tomorrow it prints again, and Wednesday’s inflation number is the next thing that can push it. | Sunday’s video said the ten-year “doesn’t print a new number Monday.” It did not. Friday’s 5.24% stands until Tuesday’s publication. The 10-year traded as high as 5.344% on Wednesday October 7, a 24-year high, and 5.35% intraday Friday before finishing 5.24%. The ten-year line has stood since October 1. | Treasury: daily par yield curve, October 2026; Receipt 30, October 11 |
| Gold. Overnight it was over 4,216, 4,242 at one point while Asia was open, and by our afternoon it was back under. | The December 2026 COMEX gold contract (GC) settled Friday at 4,216.30. On Yahoo Finance’s hourly series it opened Sunday evening above that, printed a high of 4,242.30 in the hour beginning 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday (Asian trading), and traded between about 4,178 and 4,200 through Monday afternoon Eastern, with the 1:00 PM hour closing at 4,194.00. Yahoo’s morning note had the contract opening Monday at 4,220.80. See clarification 2 on the official settle. | Yahoo Finance: Gold Dec 26 (GC=F); Yahoo Finance: gold prices today, October 12, 2026 |
| The grade is Wednesday’s finish, with the inflation number in it. | Sunday’s grade, repeated: Wednesday’s finish after the 8:30 CPI. “The funds backing off” is the CFTC headcount as of Tuesday October 6, which showed managed-money net longs in gold down 9,331 contracts on the week. | Receipt 30, October 11 (gold and the headcount) |
The dollar: the euro, the franc, the yen, and Bangkok
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| The euro. A new 17-month low today, 1.115, and it finished about 1.116. Still under the line from September 30. | EUR/USD printed 1.1152 in the hour beginning 5:00 PM Eastern on Yahoo Finance’s series, under Thursday October 8’s 1.1161, the prior 17-month low, and was at 1.1163 by 6:00 PM. Babypips’ Monday note recorded the euro at a 17-month low against the dollar the same day French and German 10-year borrowing costs stood more than 150 basis points apart. The euro line has stood since September 30. | Yahoo Finance: EUR/USD; Babypips, October 12, 2026: French debt crisis drags on EUR (babypips.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
| Our bond market was closed and the euro fell anyway. Because the other side of that comparison is France, and France is paying the most to borrow in about 24 years, as reported. | Reuters’ week-ahead note for the week of October 12 said U.S. and French bond yields had hit fresh 24-year highs and that the speed of the rise in the French risk premium was hurting the euro. Babypips put the French 10-year above 5% at its peak, the highest since 2002; on Monday it traded near 4.86% to 4.87%, just under that peak. See clarification 3. | Reuters via Investing.com: Take Five, Bangkok blues (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked); Babypips, October 12, 2026 (babypips.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
| The franc. The dollar ran to 0.8349 against it during the day and finished back under last week’s high. Nothing new. | USD/CHF printed a Monday high of 0.8349 (0.83486) in the hour beginning 2:00 PM Eastern, was 0.8339 at 5:00 PM and 0.8345 at 6:00 PM. Last week’s high was 0.8347, the highest since May 2025; Friday’s close was 0.8294. | Yahoo Finance: USD/CHF; Receipt 30, October 11 |
| The yen, 158.58, still above the top of the box, Japan was closed and it drifted up with nobody home. | USD/JPY was 158.58 at 5:00 PM Eastern Monday (Friday 158.25) with Tokyo closed for Sports Day. The yen box has stood since September 30. | Yahoo Finance: USD/JPY; TradingHours: JPX holidays |
| One name comes off the list. Our Treasury Secretary isn’t going to Bangkok. The Treasury said that Friday and I missed it Sunday. | Nikkei Asia reported, in a story timed 3:43 AM Tokyo on Saturday October 10 (Friday afternoon Eastern), that the Treasury Department said Friday that Secretary Scott Bessent will skip the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, with a U.S. official citing duties at home, which removes the prospect of talks there with Japan’s finance minister and central bank governor. Sunday’s video said both ministers would be in Bangkok; see clarification 4. | Nikkei Asia, October 10, 2026: Bessent to skip IMF, World Bank meetings in Bangkok |
Stocks: Microsoft, the chips, the Dow, the phone companies
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft finished at 541, above Friday’s finish of 535. That’s the one I pointed at Sunday, and it came in. | Microsoft (MSFT) closed Monday at 541.15 against Friday’s 535.07 (Friday’s low was 526.24). Sunday night’s call was that software still had the lead; Monday’s finish said yes. | Yahoo Finance: MSFT history; Receipt 30, October 11 |
| The software index slipped a little and the chips slipped twice as much. The chips went down again, third red finish in a row, a memory chip maker lost nearly 4 percent by itself. Nasdaq 100 down 0.7 on it. | The software ETF (IGV) closed at 111.28, down 1.23%; the semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed at 590.99, down 2.04%, its third straight lower close (Thursday 607.27 from Wednesday’s 625.03, Friday 603.33, Monday 590.99). Micron (MU) closed at 989.04 against Friday’s 1,029.00, down 3.88%; CNBC credited the Nasdaq’s decline to that drop. The Nasdaq-100 closed at 30,664.70, down 0.71% from Friday’s 30,883.15. | Yahoo Finance: IGV; Yahoo Finance: SMH; Yahoo Finance: MU; Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq-100; CNBC: stock market today, October 12, 2026 |
| The Dow went the other way, up 196 to 51,850 and change, above Friday’s finish before the banks even opened their mouths. The boring names held up, the ones that pay a dividend. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Monday at 51,850.55, up 195.60 points (0.38%), above Friday’s 51,654.95. The S&P 500 closed at 7,807.24, down 0.06%. Market coverage described the day as a rotation into value and dividend-paying sectors while memory and chip stocks weighed on the Nasdaq. | CNBC: stock market today, October 12, 2026; The Motley Fool: stock market today, October 12, 2026; Yahoo Finance: Dow Jones Industrial Average |
| The phone companies, all three finished above Friday’s low. Day one was the panic. Day two the sellers took a breath. | AT&T (T) closed at 22.49 against Friday’s low of 21.96; Verizon (VZ) at 42.78 against 40.81; T-Mobile (TMUS) at 151.87 against 147.90. T-Mobile rose after a Raymond James upgrade; all three recovered part of Friday’s SpaceX-spectrum selloff. | Yahoo Finance: T; Yahoo Finance: VZ; Yahoo Finance: TMUS; Investing.com, October 12, 2026: why T-Mobile is rallying (investing.com; the page blocks automated checks, so it is named rather than linked) |
Tuesday and Bitcoin
| What I said | The record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Tomorrow before the open, four of the 30 Dow stocks report, two big banks, the drug company, the insurer. Plus two more banks that aren’t in the Dow. | JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth, all Dow components, report Tuesday October 13 before the open, along with Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Bank stocks had fallen about 7.5% over the prior month going in. | CNBC, October 11, 2026: big banks report this week, what to expect |
| Rates are the highest in about 24 years, so the loan side should be paying more, and by the opening bell you’ll know what that did to the gap. | The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.344% on Wednesday October 7, its highest in 24 years. The “gap” is net interest income, the difference between what a bank earns on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits and borrowings; it is reported in each bank’s results before the open. | Treasury: daily par yield curve, October 2026; CNBC bank earnings preview |
| Bitcoin. Right after 4:00 today, 82,784, still under the line from last Wednesday. An hour later it was over it, and an hour after that it was 82,470. | On Coinbase’s BTC-USD feed the 4:00 PM Eastern minute opened at 82,762.92 and closed at 82,784.08, under the line. The 5:00 PM price was 82,985.48 (over it) and the 6:00 PM price was 82,470.13. Sunday’s video had Bitcoin at 83,700 at about 7:56 PM Eastern. The Bitcoin line was given Wednesday October 7; Bitcoin has no official close, and the 4:00 PM Eastern price is the one graded here. | Coinbase: Bitcoin price; CoinDesk: Bitcoin price; Receipt 30, October 11 |
Clarifications, owned
1. Sunday’s video said the oil count comes “Wednesday at 10:30,” and Sunday’s receipt said the holiday would not move it. That was wrong. The EIA’s holiday schedule moves the report to Thursday October 15 at noon Eastern. Monday’s video corrects it on camera.
2. “4,242 at one point while Asia was open” is the high of the December gold contract on Yahoo Finance’s hourly series, in the hour beginning 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday. “Back under by our afternoon” is the same series, which held between about 4,178 and 4,200 through Monday afternoon. The official COMEX settlement for Monday was not retrieved before this was posted, so no settle figure was given on camera; the grade for gold is Wednesday’s finish, as said Sunday.
3. “France is paying the most to borrow in about 24 years” rests on Reuters’ week-ahead note that U.S. and French yields had hit fresh 24-year highs, and on reports of the French 10-year above 5%, the highest since 2002. On Monday itself the French 10-year traded near 4.86% to 4.87%, just under that peak. The sentence is said “as reported,” and “near the highest in 24 years” would have been the tighter wording.
4. Sunday’s video said Japan’s finance minister and the U.S. Treasury Secretary were both going to Bangkok. The Treasury had said on Friday afternoon that the Secretary would not attend. Monday’s video owns the miss on camera. Whether Japan’s finance minister attends was not re-verified for this post; the line given Monday is only that the U.S. side is not going.
5. “58 percent … down from 72” is the regulator’s Sunday midday figure of 57.54% against the Friday peak of 71.51%. No Monday figure had been published when the video was recorded.
6. “The people over there said they hit the Saudi airport Saturday” is the Houthi claim of responsibility for the Saturday strike on Riyadh’s airport, as reported by Reuters. “A Saudi barrel and a Gulf of Mexico barrel aren’t the same barrel,” “the world’s spare,” and “the funds pay for the one with no date” are the argument for why the price rose with the Gulf coming back; Reuters’ wording was that the attacks outweighed the prospect of increased supplies.
7. “Up 2 percent” on oil is 2.06%. “Down 2.5 percent” on the airline is 2.51%. “Nearly 4 percent” on the memory chip maker is 3.88%. “Up 196” on the Dow is 195.60. “Down 0.7” on the Nasdaq 100 is 0.71%.
8. “Right after 4:00 today, 82,784” is the close of the 4:00 PM Eastern minute on Coinbase; the minute opened at 82,762.92, so either figure is under the line. “An hour later it was over” is 82,985 at 5:00 PM; “an hour after that it was 82,470” is the 6:00 PM price. “The guy who bought it Sunday night at 83,700” is the price given on Sunday’s video, not a person.
9. “A new 17-month low today, 1.115” is 1.1152 on Yahoo Finance’s hourly series, under the 1.1161 printed Thursday October 8; the 5:00 PM close was 1.1163, so “finished about 1.116” is the finish and 1.115 is the low. “The dollar ran to 0.8349 against the franc” is 0.83486. The 5:00 PM franc print of 0.8339 and the 6:00 PM print of 0.8345 are both under last week’s high of 0.8347.
10. “Rates are the highest in about 24 years” refers to the 10-year’s 5.344% on October 7. “A big part of a bank’s job is the gap between what it pays you on your savings and what it charges you on the loan” is net interest income in plain words. “Good number, red finish, usually means it was already bought” is a tendency stated with “usually,” not a rule.
11. “A dividend is the closest thing to a guaranteed number a stock can give you” is a comparison with a Treasury yield, not a claim that dividends are guaranteed. They are not; a company can cut or suspend one.
12. On tape a couple of the numbers come out fast. The numbers meant are the ones in the tables; the lines themselves went to the members before the open and are not restated here. “The engine,” “the comparison,” and “a day with the engine off” are the explanation of why the list moves together, not a quote from any source.
The daily version of this
I’m Nathan Banks. Since 2001 I’ve learned, over time, which reports matter and why. These pages are the evening version: the numbers with a date. The morning version, before the open, is the Daily Market Research, and that’s where the lines live. The method underneath it, the Institutional Expansion Cycle™, is the Core Framework. The oil piece of the week, the four pages and what to read on each, is the Oil & Gas Cheat Code. It’s all there if you want it. The free trade desk is at tradewithbanks.com/join. Nothing here is financial advice; trading involves risk.
