Receipts: Japan Raised, the Yen Fell — Two Roommates, the Franc-Yen Chart, and the Level (September 18, 2026)
The paperwork behind the Bank of Japan video on TikTok (watch the video), recorded overnight on September 18 within the hour of the decision. The video read the decision off the Bank of Japan’s own statement, explained why money borrows in Japan or Switzerland and parks in America, and marked the levels on the two charts where the next move gets decided: franc-yen first, dollar-yen second. Every number below has a date and a document next to it.
The decision, verbatim
What I said
The record
Source
Japan raised interest rates to one and a quarter percent, the highest since 1995
Policy rate (the uncollateralized overnight call rate) raised to around 1.25% from 1.00%, effective September 24, 2026. A 1.25% policy rate is the highest in Japan since 1995.
The vote was seven to two; two people on that board didn’t want to raise at all
7–2 majority. Voting against: Asada Toichiro and Sato Ayano, both preferring to leave the rate unchanged.
Same statement, voting note on page 3
The statement said they’ll “consider the timing and pace” of the next one
“The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation… it will consider the timing and pace of adjustment.”
Same statement, paragraph 5
Sixty-six of sixty-eight economists expected one and a quarter
Reuters poll: all but two of 68 economists expected a hike to 1.25%
Two roommates: the gap, and who is cheaper tonight
What I said
The record
Source
The big funds borrow from whichever roommate is cheaper, park it in dollars that pay about four percent, or the government’s ten-year IOU that pays about five, and keep the difference.
Japan policy rate 1.25% (from September 24). U.S. federal funds target range 3.75–4.00% (raised September 16). U.S. 10-year Treasury par yield 4.94% at the September 17 close. Gap on the ten-year: about 3.7 points.
Any currency broker, you buy dollar-yen or dollar-franc and hold it, and every night the broker pays you the difference between the two rates. It’s called rollover.
Standard retail foreign-exchange mechanism: a position held past the daily rollover time is credited or debited the interest-rate difference between the two currencies, less the broker’s markup. Holding dollar-yen or dollar-franc long earns the difference while U.S. rates exceed Japan’s or Switzerland’s.
Any retail currency broker’s rollover or swap disclosure (published on each broker’s site)
Switzerland is at zero, and every economist polled says it stays at zero next week. So as of tonight the franc is the cheapest money in the world, cheaper than the yen by one and a quarter.
Swiss National Bank policy rate 0.00%. Reuters poll of September 17–22: 40 of 41 economists expect a hold on September 25 (one expects a cut to −0.25%). Japan’s 1.25% minus Switzerland’s 0.00% = 1.25 points.
For twenty years the world had two cheap roommates, Japan and Switzerland; both let you borrow money for nothing
Bank of Japan policy rate at or near zero for most of 1999–2024 (−0.1% from January 2016 to March 2024). Swiss National Bank policy rate at or below zero from December 2014 to June 2022 (−0.75% for most of that period), and back to 0.00% since 2025.
Switching roommates means paying back the yen loan (buying yen) and borrowing francs (selling francs); on the franc-yen chart that is down. Two-oh-four in April, one ninety-eight three weeks ago, one eighty-eight last week.
CHF/JPY daily: high 204.41 on April 20, 2026; high 198.75 on August 27; low 187.84 on September 13.
Yahoo Finance CHFJPY=X daily history, read September 18
Franc-yen bounced from one eighty-eight to about one ninety-one tonight
190.86 at about 1:30 AM ET September 18; session high 191.01
Yahoo Finance CHFJPY=X
The old highs are sitting at one ninety-three and one ninety-five, from two weeks ago
Daily highs: 192.89 on September 6; 195.53 on September 2
Yahoo Finance CHFJPY=X daily history
The chart, second: dollar-yen (USD/JPY), where the borrowed money parks
What I said
The record
Source
The dollar went up against the yen after the decision; the yen slid about a point
USD/JPY 155.95 at the September 17 close; 156.17 at 10:40 PM ET; 156.96 at 11:31 PM ET; 157.01 at 12:20 AM ET September 18. One dollar bought about one more yen than it did that afternoon.
Yahoo Finance JPY=X, 5-minute and daily history, read September 17–18
Two weeks ago this thing was at one-sixty; it fell to one fifty-three in a week; tonight it’s back at one fifty-seven with the old highs at one fifty-nine, one-sixty right above
Daily highs and lows: September 1 high 160.38; September 2 high 158.94; September 7 low 152.90; September 18 (Asia session) 157.01
Yahoo Finance JPY=X daily history
One-sixty is where Japan’s own government stepped in before, twice in 2024, and bought yen
Japan’s Ministry of Finance disclosed yen-buying intervention on April 29 and May 1, 2024, with dollar-yen near 160, and again on July 11–12, 2024, near 161–162
Two weeks ago the big funds closed out about a hundred thousand bets against the yen
Japanese yen futures, non-commercial (large speculator) net position: about −92,000 contracts as of September 1, about +11,000 as of September 8, a change of about +103,000 on the week. Released September 11.
Every Friday the government publishes a list of how big the bets are for and against each currency
Released Fridays at 3:30 PM ET, positions as of the prior Tuesday. The next release is September 18 with positions as of September 15.
CFTC release schedule, same page
The play, as stated
The video did not say buy or sell on the decision. On franc-yen it marked the old highs at 193 and 195 and described two outcomes: a bounce that pokes above 193 and closes back under it by the end of the session (the stops above the old high get collected, the switch from yen loans to franc loans resumes, short franc-yen with the stop above the spike high), or a bounce that holds above 193 into the close (the yen is still being sold, the switch waits, don’t fight it). The invalidation was stated before the entry: playing the sweep and it closes above 193, the trade is over. Dollar-yen got the same read at its own level, the old highs at 159–160 where Japan’s government intervened twice in 2024. The governor’s 2:30 AM remarks and any Middle East headline were named as the two things that can change the picture first. Not financial advice; trading involves risk.
Corrections
None logged for this video as of posting. If a number above is wrong, the comment section on the video is where it gets caught, and the correction goes here with the date.
Receipts: Fed Week, Day One — Where Everybody Was Standing (September 14, 2026) This is the paperwork behind the Monday video on TikTok, the one that opened Fed week.
Receipts: Fed Week, Day Two — The Move Happens Before the Announcement (September 15, 2026) The paperwork behind Tuesday’s video on TikTok, recorded around 4 AM ET on September
Receipts: Fed Day Morning — The Auction, the Coffee Cup, and the Board at 2:30 (September 16, 2026) The paperwork behind two videos on TikTok: the Fed Day Morning
